Gunpoint diplomacy

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 9th of June. So glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. 

Good morning. I’m Mary Reichard.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher.

First up: ongoing military conflict in the Middle East.

Since an April ceasefire agreement, Iran-backed Hezbollah has clashed with Israel over contested land in Lebanon. The rising tensions come as the U.S. continues to negotiate a peace deal with Iran.

REICHARD: As late as yesterday, Israel and Iran have traded attacks. The conflict signals shifting strategic objectives, and diplomacy.

WORLD’s Emma Eicher has the story.

EMMA EICHER: When Israel launched a drone attack at Lebanon early last week, President Trump made an angry phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The conflict put U.S. negotiations with Iran at risk.

MIKE NELSON: He called him crazy and apparently lost his temper with him a little bit, saying that he was endangering negotiations.

Mike Nelson is Chief of Staff for the University of Pennsylvania’s Washington, D.C. office. He’s also a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel who previously served in the Middle East with U.S. Special Forces.

Since April, Hezbollah has attempted to retake parts of Lebanon from Israeli control. Last week, Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement that was contingent on Hezbollah stopping their attacks. But the terrorist group rejected the terms.

Then on Monday, the conflict escalated when Israel struck Lebanon with missiles. And Iran responded.

NELSON: And Iran, for the first time since the beginning of the ceasefire, conducted a missile strike towards the Israeli homeland, trying to attack them directly.

President Trump immediately called for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

NELSON: So right now we're kind of waiting for the dust to settle to see if this will spark further escalation, and what it does to threaten this already questionable negotiation that's taking place with Iran.

During negotiations with the U.S., Iran has demanded that Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon, and establish a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Nelson says Iran doesn’t feel pressure to comply with U.S. demands, and could leave Trump with fewer options in settling a peace deal. The president’s hurry to wrap up the war may result in concessions favoring Iran.

NELSON: He does not want to go into the summer with rising gas prices. He doesn't want to go into the midterms with the backlash, both economically and politically, that he’s facing from this conflict.

The Monday attacks against Israel signaled that Iran is willing to walk away from the peace deal, and use military force.

ALEX VATANKA: This is the new, in a way, the new sort of Iranian approach to the Trump administration.

Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

VATANKA: It's not just diplomacy, it's diplomacy backed not just with the promise of military action, but actually putting their military threats into action, as we saw this last 48 hours with the Iranians striking at Israel.

Iran’s economy has weakened since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Vatanka says Iran’s latest military moves are strategic, and the Monday attack against Israel was an attempt to break the negotiation stalemate.

VATANKA: What Iran has done is to essentially say to President Trump, we need to go ahead with the diplomatic track. It has to happen faster, and if not, then Iran is willing to escalate in ways that United States will find equally disturbing.

Both the U.S. and Iran have felt the war’s effects through trade restrictions and military losses. Vatanka says the result of negotiations likely won’t be favorable for either party.

VATANKA: The question is not who really wins, that's really one of optics, that's what politicians would engage in on both sides. … United States has lost, and certainly the Iranian regime has lost plenty, both militarily, in terms of the impact on their economy.

Instead, compromise may be the way forward.

But so far, that hasn’t happened, causing the war to be prolonged.

VATANKA: The best thing we can hope for right now is the continuation of the ceasefire, perhaps the beginning of a process of diplomatic negotiations over some of the more thorny issues, like the future of Iran's nuclear program, that would take weeks, months, perhaps longer.

Israel and the U.S. remain cooperative in recent military defense operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on Monday. 

While these agreements have already resulted in minor skirmishes, they’ve stopped short of full scale escalation.

And Vatanka says even a frail ceasefire is a step in the right direction.

VATANKA: It's a new chapter, it's a more dangerous chapter, which could go in different directions. It certainly provides more impetus for diplomacy to be taken more seriously, and if diplomacy doesn't work, it just makes a regional war that much more of a risk and costly for all those involved.

For its part, Iran has promised a “harsher and more crushing response” if Israel attacks southern Lebanon again.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Emma Eicher.

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