Geopolitical fallout surrounding Ukraine

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: Russia’s war in Ukraine is coming up on its one-year mark. The effects of the invasion have led to new partnerships among some of the world’s most-feared authoritarians.

NICK EICHER, HOST: Washington now confronts a host of geopolitical problems that have the potential to ignite all at once. WORLD’s Jill Nelson takes a look at some of these new alliances and what we might expect in the months ahead.

AUDIO: [Drones]

JILL NELSON, REPORTER: It was early on a Monday morning in October when the residents of Kyiv, Ukraine woke up to a new kind of weapon attacking their homes. The Shahed-136 is a type of suicide drone. It attacks in clusters, weaving around buildings and dive-bombing into targets with its 80-pound warhead.

During the October attack at least five people died, including an unborn child whose mother was six-months pregnant. This new form of terror was made possible by one of Moscow’s newest friends in the region: Iran. Tehran sold hundreds of the kamikaze drones to Moscow last year, and they first arrived on the Ukrainian battlefields in September.

RESIDENT: [Ukrainian] At 6:30 it flew from there. The rumble was like...

This Kyiv resident survived a drone strike in December. She says it sounded like a moped approaching, followed by a roaring explosion.

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe from 2014 to 2017. He says Western-backed sanctions have made it difficult for the Kremlin to replenish what they’re using on the battlefields.

HODGES: We know that they are now having to pull out ammunition and equipment that is almost my age, and it's just not as effective.

Russia is creating new alliances with pariah states to make up for the shortfall. Russia and Iran have been enemies for nearly 500 years, but now that’s changing.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is an expert on Iran at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

BEN TALEBLU: You know, these are troubling times. America’s authoritarian adversaries are moving closer and closer together.

The White House in October said Iranian forces were on the ground in Ukraine to help Russian troops operate the new equipment. Iranian drones knocked out power and heat during the heart of winter … and killed dozens of civilians.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in January said Tehran may be “contributing to widespread war crimes.” And now the two nations are building a drone factory in Russia.

Taleblu says Washington should close the door to the fatally flawed Iran nuclear deal, effectively enforce sanctions, and go after Iran’s oppressive regime.

BEN TALEBLU: For instance Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, and Raisi, the country’s president, are not subject to human rights sanctions despite everything they’ve done and everything they’re accountable for at the helm of that system.

Russia is also turning to North Korea for help. Moscow purchased millions of rockets and artillery shells from Pyongyang according to declassified American intelligence.

Retired Lieutenant General Hodges believes these are all signs of a Russian logistics system in deep trouble.

HODGES: And I do think that over the next couple of years we're going to see potentially the gradual breakup of the Russian Federation. I think their economy is in such bad shape, their military is no longer feared the way it was.

And that means Russia could run to China for support. The Wall Street Journal recently reviewed Russian customs forms and found Beijing is already helping Moscow get around Western sanctions. China has exported navigation equipment, fighter jet parts, and other military-linked supplies to Russia.

Hodges says it's in the United States’ best interest to ensure the Ukrainians win this war.

HODGES: If Ukraine fails and Russia is allowed to keep Crimea, for example, or other territories that it has illegally occupied, if they're rewarded for that, it will not be as helpful or beneficial for all of us. And the Chinese will be watching that, of course.

Other nations are wildcards in the geopolitical shakeup. Turkey, for example, has played both sides.

It has supplied Ukraine with weapons and helped broker a deal to end a Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain exports. But Turkey has also dramatically increased trade with Moscow and welcomed millions of Russians, including sanctioned oligarchs, into its country.

Hodges lived in Izmir, Turkey, for two years. He acknowledged the government’s rollback of basic freedoms, but says it will be increasingly important for the U.S. to acknowledge Ankara’s regional interests and rebuild trust.

Turkey is in a rough neighborhood. He recalled a conversation with a senior officer on the Turkish General Staff.

HODGES: He said, “Ben, I wake up in the morning, I've got Russia to the north, Iran, Iraq, Syria to the south, the Caucasus to the east, and the Balkans to the west.”

Washington will have plenty to navigate in the months ahead, and some analysts are increasingly concerned about the new axis of evil between Russia, Iran, and China. But Hodges is optimistic, and believes Ukraine will take back Crimea by the end of the summer and eventually push back all Russian troops.

HODGES: So, of course I don't have a crystal ball, and I've been proven wrong before. But if the West sticks together and we do everything we said we were going to do and we keep sanctions in place, we deliver the weapons, the capability, the supplies, and we keep looking for ways to get better and better at doing that, Ukraine is going to win this war.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Jill Nelson.

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