Following in Merkel’s footsteps

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: It’s Tuesday the 26th of October, 2021.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Myrna Brown.

NICK EICHER, HOST: And I’m Nick Eicher. First up: Germany.

After 16 years, Angela Merkel is no longer the head of state. Germany’s Socialist party won national elections last month in a tight race. But Germany’s system of coalition governing means the country’s leaders still have a lot of wheeling and dealing to do before we know who’ll be running the next government.

BROWN: Here to explain the global implications is WORLD European Correspondent Jenny Lind Schmitt.

JENNY LIND SCHMITT, REPORTER: When Angela Merkel became Germany’s first female chancellor in 2005, George W. Bush was still president of the United States. Under Merkel’s leadership, Germany maintained and expanded its role as the driving economic force of the European Union and the world’s fourth largest economy.

Her time as chancellor also saw Germany welcome thousands of Syrian and Afghan refugees in the crisis of 2015. “Wir schaffen das—We can do this,” she famously said at the time.

AUDIO: [Merkel speaking]

Though ridiculed by her critics, that phrase became emblematic of Merkel’s time in power. Her practical, no-nonsense leadership sometimes lacked flair, but it was reliable and got things done.

Merkel’s decision last year to step down as chancellor sent Germany’s political parties into a flurry ahead of September’s elections.

While some Germans just wanted change, most wanted Merkel’s style of reliable leadership to continue. But her pick to replace her as head of the conservative Christian Democratic Party failed to connect with voters. The left-leaning Social Democratic Party, the SPD, won the election.

MATTHIES: Deutschland hat mit diese Wahl eine weitere Linksrutsch erlebt...

Helmut Matthies is editor-in-chief of the German evangelical news organization IDEA. He says that in this election Germany slid further to the left. He sees the election result as evidence of the fracturing of German politics. The convervative CDU party had its worst showing ever, with only 24 percent.

MATTHIES: Bisher war der Burgerliche mitte…

VOICEOVER: Until now, there was a centrist voting bloc, with the CDU and the FDP. But after this election, the centrist bloc is gone.

Matthies says that’s bad news for the German pro-life movement. The three parties now working to build a coalition all want to push a pro-abortion agenda. Parties with a pro life platform have been losing power.

Before the election, the Green party touted its candidate, Annalena Baerbock, as the woman to replace Merkel. The Greens didn’t get enough votes to win the chancellorship, but they did get enough to win a seat at the coalition table. Since the last election in 2017, the Greens doubled their percentage.

MATTHEIS: Also die Grünen sind von den stimmen her, die Grössten Wahlgewinner bei diese Wahl gewesen.

VOICEOVER: Looking at vote percentages, the Greens were the biggest winners in this election.

So who will be the next chancellor? With coalition talks still underway, nothing is guaranteed. But most likely SPD candidate Olaf Scholz will be Germany's next leader. Scholz has been Merkel’s finance minister under the Grand Coalition that ruled the last four years. He describes his approach as “pragmatic, but oriented toward the future.” Critics say he lacks charisma, but for many Germans, his positive and pragmatic approach seems the logical continuation of Merkel’s policies and a good remedy for uncertain times.

The new twist in this election cycle? This will be the first three-party coalition since the 1950s, which also signals a change.

ROLOFF: The smaller partners of a possible coalition are currently in the driver’s seat. And that’s a new development for Germany.

Professor Ralf Roloff is deputy dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George Marshall Center in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. He says the two smaller parties first found their own common ground before approaching the SPD.

ROLOFF: In the larger projects, that we need to modernize the country, that we need to get out of the stalemate that we went through the particular years of the Grand Coalition so that’s certainly where the two are eager to push forward.

Roloff says that while foreign policy didn’t come up much during the campaign, he expects Merkel’s policies to continue.

ROLOFF: The limitations for a new government to completely reshape German security and foreign policy are not that big. All of the three partners are fully committed to NATO, They are fully committed to the European Union in different ways.

One exception? The consistently strong stance the Green Party has taken on human rights in Russia, China, and other autocracies. That emphasis is likely to continue in a coalition.

For instance, until recently Germany’s China policy was viewed mostly through an economic lens. Roloff says that’s starting to change as more human rights abuses come to light, and because the pandemic highlighted Germany’s outsourcing of medical supplies.

ROLOFF: Just recently, two years ago, we started to discuss the security implications. And not so much in terms of the hard security implications, but the security implications that stem from the economic interdependence with China. So China buying into many companies in Germany or in Europe.

China has recently made some large-scale purchases, including a drone manufacturer and the internal port of Duisburg that have given internal security experts concern.

In a forum last week with Berlin-based MerKAYtor Institute for China Studies, foreign policy experts from the four leading parties stressed Germany’s need to regain technological independence from China. They also want Europe to strengthen ties with the United States. Johannes Vogel is a Bundestag member with the Free Democrats, the other party in coalition talks.

VOICEOVER: No matter who builds the government, in any case, we need a new perspective on our China policy.... With the Biden administration and political change in Europe, or at least Germany, this is a chance to open a new chapter in the transatlantic relationship and have a united Western policy on China.

For all their current coziness, the three parties have some important policy disagreements, including on whether to raise or lower taxes and how to fight climate change. But before they can tackle those issues, they have to settle the most important question—who is going to be in charge?

Assuming current talks are successful, they hope to have an agreement by December 6th.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Jenny Lind Schmitt.

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