Europe steps up to aid Ukraine

NICK EICHER, HOST: It’s Tuesday, the 11th of March.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard.

First up … the war in Ukraine.

Last week, President Donald Trump stopped weapons shipments to Ukraine saying he wants to see more progress toward peace.

EICHER: Meanwhile, the European Union and several member states are stepping up with billions of dollars in aid and defense spending. The plans aren’t final, but they do signal a shift toward Europe taking more responsibility.

Joining us now to talk about it is Maria Martisiute. She’s an analyst with the European Policy Centre and has worked both with NATO and the EU. She joins us this morning from Brussels.

REICHARD: Maria, good morning.

MARIA MARTISIUTE: Good morning. Thank you for having me.

REICHARD: Well, we're so glad you're here to talk about this. The U.S. froze arms shipments to Ukraine, as we know. How prepared was the EU to step in with more funding and military aid for Ukraine?

MARTISIUTE: Well, EU has been providing aid to Ukraine over the past years, collectively in the form of European Union aid, as well as bilaterally at member states level. Now, of course, it was expected that Trump might take certain reckless actions, if I can say so, in order to exert more leverage and pressure on Ukraine and on Europeans, so Europe was preparing for any kind of unexpected, unpredictable actions of this kind. Countries have stepped forward with additional packages of aid, the Nordics in particular, but also by the UK, by Germany, and others are under preparation. Now of course, it has a very significant material impact in Ukraine, because it translates into a lack of Ukraine's ability to fight Russia back. And what I would like to add in this conversation is the hold of intelligence, perhaps is even more significant short immediate term, because that translates on the ground in the cost of lives, in terms of deaths of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

REICHARD: Could you go into more detail about the intelligence that's been halted?

MARTISIUTE: So as far as I'm aware, America has stopped sharing intelligence information with Ukraine, which is absolutely key for Ukrainians to defend themselves, but also for Ukrainians to know where potential targets could be. Ukraine has, over the past years, relied predominantly, not exclusively, but predominantly, on American intelligence. So this caused some of the deadliest days over the weekend and last week, because Russia has exploited the situation in order to advance and become more aggressive towards the Ukrainians.

REICHARD: I do want to revisit your characterization of what President Trump has done as “reckless.” Some see this as his “art of the deal” —putting pressure on where he can to reach a peace agreement and also recoup some of U.S. dollars already spent for Ukraine’s defense? What do you say to those people?

MARTISIUTE: There's indeed different ways of looking at it. On the one hand, you could say that perhaps this, these are just tactics, because he's indeed trying to show leverage. He's he's, he has significant bargaining power, because Europe, including Ukraine, is very much dependent historically, on the U.S. when it comes to military security domain. But at the same time, you know it's important to look at what consequences are on the ground and whether you really need to resort to tactics which eventually cost lives. And this is where I think that you know it is confusing to Europeans, whether it is really necessary to take such measures and without in a prior notice, whereby you know if you are switching your own intelligence, perhaps other intelligence could then step in, but at least you should know about it in advance. So the way it looks as if it is, you know, kind of helping or facilitating or aligning more with Russia, or at least appearing so. It's not clear what is the long term objective of America. It is quite suggestive that it seems to be undermining, rather than helping bring parties to the table.

REICHARD: Ukrainian president Volydymr Zelenskyy says he’s wary of a peace deal because he says without adequate safeguards because he says Russia will just invade again. But if the U.S. were to gain mineral rights in Ukraine, do you think that would help achieve peace because then the U.S. would have a stronger tie to Ukraine beyond just giving them money?

MARTISIUTE: Absolutely. Thank you for raising this. I do think this mineral deal is mutually beneficial for America and for Ukraine. It is important to cooperate with America. It is Ukraine's and Europe's ally, and it's important to show how what contribution Ukraine and Europe could make and economic domain is very important, not least because Trump also very much comes from the area of, you know, bargaining and making deals. So I think having Americans working on the ground in Ukraine could also provide significant economic security, so to say, or act as a deterrence. However, from the way that Russian foreign policy and military policy has been developing, Putin is really, first and foremost, an actor in a military sense so to say. This is why having troops, or having Article 5 of NATO extended to Ukraine, or having American troops, besides just economic imperatives, would be so important, because ultimately, what Ukraine and Europeans are trying to achieve is that the ceasefire translates into a lasting, sustainable peace, and it is important to ensure that Russia does not utilize ceasefire time in order to reconstitute, strengthen itself and come back and strike later.

REICHARD: Let’s segue now to the EU itself. There are a lot of political dynamics that affect the EU’s unified stance to support Ukraine. What would you say are the biggest challenges there?

MARTISIUTE: Well, the greatest challenge of all right now is time. Trump really seems to be wanting a quick deal on Ukraine. I think the timeline is to reach a deal around Easter time, and this creates a lot of pressure for Europe, because Europe is trying to better provide for its own defense and security, including with Ukraine. Another challenge is, of course, well, to make sure that the negotiations and that the peace agreement that we would get would be just and lasting. Because it seems that Trump perhaps wants to get some kind of deal and brush Ukraine off the table, and then focus on bigger geopolitical issues which he probably sees as more important. From America first perspective, such as China.

REICHARD: Final questions here, Maria. Think of five years from now. How do you think these policy decisions now are going to end up in the EU, U.S., and Russia?

MARTISIUTE: Oh, well, in Europe, we are preparing for the worst case scenarios that U.S. might change its mind when it comes to, for example, upholding Article Five within NATO. Worst case scenario is also such that perhaps after a ceasefire is achieved, Russia would potentially launch another attack, for example, next year, against Ukraine, or perhaps even test NATO and EU countries. So we have to be prepared for that from a military standpoint, but also our civilians have to be prepared. So there's gradually more and more engagement with the civilian populations in order for them to explain to them the risks and threats that Europe is facing, and to educate and train them in from the preparedness point of view, in case there are such emergence as crisis or war.

I am an optimist. I would like to very much think that it would be possible to find a deal between the United States, Russia and Ukraine and Europe, the one that would be just and lasting and a compromise that would take on board the most important red lines of those who are victims to this war.

REICHARD: That ends it on a more positive note. Maria Martisiute is a Policy Analyst with the European Policy Centre.

Maria, thank you for joining us. Really appreciate it.

MARTISIUTE: Thank you for having me.

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