Drama in the Commonwealth

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: Next up, Election Day.

Virginia is one of only two states choosing a new governor this year—and it’s often seen as a bellwether for where the country’s headed politically.

Both parties have faced campaign controversy, but voters and analysts say those headlines may not change much. Virginia has a long tradition of choosing governors from the party opposite the White House, and polls show tight races all the way down the ballot.

Here’s WORLD reporter Juliana Chan Erikson.

JULIANA CHAN ERIKSON: There’s a slogan here: Virginia is for lovers. And it certainly holds true for lovers of political drama.

For most of the 2025 campaign, Democrats enjoyed comfortable polling leads in races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

But that all changed last month.

NBC4 WASHINGTON: Stunning new developments in the race for attorney general of Virginia. Democrats and Republicans are condemning old text messages that emerged from Democratic candidate Jay Jones.

Back in 2022, Jones texted a colleague in the Virginia House of Delegates, saying he wanted to deliver “two bullets to the head” of Todd Gilbert, then the speaker of the State House.

That shook the confidence of some voters, like this retiree outside a cafe in Vienna, Va.

JULIANA CHAN ERIKSON: Is it okay if I ask how you intend to vote?

RETIREE: Democratic. I don’t know about the guy with the scandal.

And this independent voter told me he decided to vote Republican partly because of the text messages.

INDEPENDENT VOTER: Having been a victim of threats, I really don’t think it’s appropriate to be making those threats and hold high public office.

But it has not changed the mind of this woman.

SUE ANN GLEASON: I support all three, including Jay Jones, who I know there’s a lot of controversy over. But people are not looking at the context with which he wrote those posts. And considering who he’s up against, I support all three, wholeheartedly.

But Jones isn’t the only one dealing with scandal in Virginia. So is John Reid, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. Last month, the website American Journal News said it found gay pornographic images glorifying Nazis on a now-deleted Tumblr blog allegedly connected to Reid.

In an interview with ABC-affiliate 13NewsNow in Norfolk, Reid denied any connection with the images.

13NEWSNOW JOHN REID: They’re lies and they were discredited back in April. You know, I embarrassed everyone back in April because we proved everyone was lying about me.

None of the voters I spoke with knew about the controversy involving Reid. At a parade in Annandale, Va, most spectators couldn’t even identify him or his Democratic opponent, Ghazala Hashmi.

ERIKSON: Do you know the lieutenant governor?

SPECTATOR: Umm, I’m trying to think … lieutenant governor …

Some expressed disappointment about Jones but said they would still vote for him, like this dad watching kids play flag football in Vienna, Va.

ERIKSON: What do you think about Jay Jones?

FOOTBALL DAD: I think he’s not a great candidate. Jason Miyares supports Trump and we need to stop Trump.

Polls show the scandals have affected both candidates. Jones was leading by as much as nine points before the October surprise. But as of last week, he was losing to his Republican rival, incumbent Jason Miyares. Polls also show Reid losing to Hashmi.

Has any of this affected the race for Virginia governor? Experts say not really.

DAVID RAMADAN: For 50 years, Virginia always votes for a governor of the opposite party to whoever's in the White House.

David Ramadan is a former Virginia state Delegate and a professor at George Mason University. He thinks Virginians will follow tradition and select Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger to be the next governor. But lieutenant governor and attorney general could be a different story.

Unlike some states, Virginians vote on the top executive offices individually.

RAMADAN: But in the mind of the voter, it's not a ticket. You don't cast one vote for all three. You cast three actual votes. And because of that, we're not seeing that the controversy on the AG is dragging down the governor's race or the Lieutenant Governor's race.

Ramadan predicts Virginians will vote straight down Democratic party lines and give Spanberger, Hashmi, and even the scandal-plagued Jones a victory. Others think the text scandal will at least cost Jones his race.

KAREN HULT: I think Attorney General Miyares has it in the bag, quite frankly.

Karen Hult is a political science professor at Virginia Tech. She believes that enough Virginians will skip voting on Jones to give Miyares the win. If that happens, that would give the Commonwealth a split ticket, something Virginia hasn’t had in 20 years.

Regardless, Hult encourages Virginians to do some homework before they head to the polls.

HULT: How important is it to you that one of the candidates, rather than the other, fills that position? And then to what extent, if any, do those text messages make in your estimation of who to vote for? It's a tough choice.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Juliana Chan Erikson in northern Virginia.

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