Commander in training

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: It’s Thursday, the first day of August, 2024.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Lindsay Mast.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: And I’m Myrna Brown.

Up first…Kamala Harris and the Middle East.

Last week, the vice president declined to preside over a joint session of Congress where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking. In that speech, he laid out the challenges facing Israel…and the United States.

NETANYAHU: So when Israel fights Hamas, we're fighting Iran. When we fight Hezbollah, we're fighting Iran. When we fight the Houthis, we're fighting Iran, and when we fight Iran, we're fighting the most radical and murderous enemy of the United States of America

MAST: In the days since then, the terror group Hezbollah launched a rocket attack that killed young people on a soccer field in Israel’s Golan Heights.

And then yesterday (Wednesday), a targeted strike attributed to Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh [ISS-mail Ah-kneel], a key political leader of Hamas. Not in Gaza, but in Tehran, the heart of Iran.

BROWN: So as conflict in the Middle East escalates, how do we assess the vice president’s foreign policy …should she become commander in chief?

To find out, our colleague Mary Reichard interviewed Will Inboden. He’s a former member of the National Security Council staff, and now teaches at the University of Florida.

Here’s their conversation.

MARY REICHARD, INTERVIEWER: Will, good morning.

WILL INBODEN, GUEST: Good morning, Mary. Good to be with you.

REICHARD: Well let’s start with Harris’s record…what foreign policy assignments has she handled during the last four years?

INBODEN: Not many. You know, the most visible one was when she was tapped as the so-called "border czar," and that included traveling to some of the Central American countries, which were, at the time, the source of most of the migrant flows north, you know, coming across the the southern border illegally. So she's done a couple of speeches in Asia. She did a trip or two to Africa as kind of a goodwill emissary there. But there's not a, certainly not a very substantial foreign policy record that we could point to.

One thing we'll be wanting to watch for is, traditionally, you know, every presidential nominee will try to give a major foreign policy speech during the campaign. I don't know if hers has been scheduled yet, but in the next few months, we should, you know, watch that, and that'll be her first chance to kind of lay out what she actually believes. Thus far from what we've seen, she seems to look at most policy questions through the lens of politics, right? How will this play with with her progressive political base, or with her election prospects. And again, you know, you always have to pay some attention to that, but I would like to see some evidence of her given some more thought and care to this and actually laying out, you know, what she actually believes and would plan, would plan to do. So it just remains an open question.

REICHARD: Back to Israel. Now, Harris skipped Netanyahu speech in favor of delivering a speech before a college sorority. But shortly after that, she joined President Biden in a meeting with the Prime Minister, and then she took the lead in speaking with reporters about it after and we have a clip from her. Let's listen:

HARRIS: So I just had a frank and constructive meeting with prime minister Netanyahu. I told him that I will always ensure that Israel is able to defend itself including from Iran and Iran-backed militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Well, what does that say about how the White House is going to handle foreign policy between now and the election?

INBODEN: Yeah, the White House is in a tough spot on that, because it's now visible to all the country and all the world what poor shape President Biden is in right, his his diminished mental faculties, his diminished energy, his memory issues, and yet he still is the Commander in Chief and the president United States certainly, certainly on paper. So now he's got the complicated situation of his vice president, who's also running to succeed him, and she is going to be looking at every foreign policy question over the next few months through the lens of her campaign, through through politics, and that's you can never completely escape from that. But this is much more pronounced that she's going to be looking at it politically. And so it wouldn't surprise me if there's a little bit of confusion in the West Wing among the senior team over who exactly is in charge and who, who should they be listening to. And that comes at a perilous time. The world's a very dangerous place right now.

REICHARD: I want to return to that in just a moment, that idea about incapacity. But what do you make of what's happening right now between Israel and Iran?

INBODEN: Yeah, I mean, the Middle East really is a powder keg, right? Obviously, you know, Israel has been in war with Hamas in Gaza since October 7, but behind that all along has been Iran, and Iran really is Israel's most mortal, most serious, most menacing enemy in the region. And now that Iran has been trying to have either itself or its proxies step up their attacks, their pressure on Israel, I wrote a World Opinions article earlier this week, picking up on the "ring of fire," as another scholar has put it, surrounding Israel, of Iran and six of Iran's proxies all surrounding Israel, whether it's the Houthis in Yemen or in Syria or in Iraq or Hezbollah and Hamas.

So Israel is is in a really tough spot right now, and Tehran is behind all of that. And as Tehran, as Ayatollah Khamenei sees President Biden's weakness and vice president Harris being focused with the campaign and trying to cater to her left-wing base, which is much more hostile towards Israel, Israel, I think, is really feeling alone right now, not being able to rely on the support from the United States that they historically have enjoyed, and they need it more more than ever right now.

So that's why I think we see them taking some more assertive actions. They haven't acknowledged it, but they almost certainly were behind the assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, as well as the recent Hezbollah leader. So Israel is going to need to be taking some stronger actions, precisely because they're feeling a little more insecure without American support.

REICHARD: Well, returning now to your earlier comment, the US does seem to be in a precarious position now until the election, because if Trump regains the White House, Iran, it seems would want to do what they want to do while President Biden is still in office. Any thoughts about that?

INBODEN: Yeah, the next few months before the election, but also the, you know, the two months or so after between the election and whichever next president is sworn in, that transition time is going to be very dangerous. And, you know, historically, our adversaries have, at times, during presidential transitions, taken aggressive actions against us. I mean, it's back in December of 1988 for example, that Libyan terrorists blew up the Pan Am plight over Lockerbie, Scotland. That was when President Reagan was on his way out. And of course, Vice President Bush was the president elect. We could point to other other examples as well. And so yes, I'm not trying to be a fearmonger by any means, but the next few months, up until whichever next president is sworn in, are moments when our adversaries may try to press their advantage and be even more menacing towards the United States.

REICHARD: Will Inboden is a professor at the University of Florida, and former member of the National Security Council staff. Will, thank you for your time.

INBODEN: Thank you, Mary, great to be with you.

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