Change from within

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: pressuring Iran.

More nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran are set to take place on Thursday. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has amassed what some say is the biggest military buildup in the Middle East in more than two decades. And protests against the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khomaini have started again, weeks after his government brutally crushed an uprising in January.

NICK EICHER, HOST: Joining us now is Barbara Slavin. She is a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University.

REICHARD: Ms. Slavin, good morning.

BARBARA SLAVIN: Good morning.

REICHARD: Well there are confirmed reports that protests started again in the last few days, many of them happened during memorials marking 40 days since the January protestors were killed. What are protestors saying now?

SLAVIN: The demand is the same. I think 80% or more of the Iranian people would love to get rid of the system of government they've had for the last 47 years. But of course, this is all easier said than done, as we saw in January when protests were put down absolutely brutally, and I have no doubt that the regime would do the same to these protests, although I think they're letting people let off a little bit of steam. As you mentioned, 40 days is a mourning period in Iran, and so it was expected that people would protest again 40 days after the last protests. Also, college campuses have reopened, and college students historically have protested in Iran.

REICHARD: So we have external pressures and internal pressures. Now reports are saying that the regime, as we mentioned, killed anywhere from several thousand to tens of thousands of protesters, unarmed people, at that. 

Describe for us the risks these protesters now face. Anything different than January?

SLAVIN: Because of the external pressures, the enormous military power that has been assembled next to Iran in the Persian Gulf by the United States, I think the regime feels even more obligated to be very, very harsh with internal protests, because it knows its vulnerabilities. That said, during the protests in January and now, we've not seen cracks in the regime or in its repressive forces. And so those who hope that somehow this government is going to magically go away, even if the United States attacks, I think should be cautious in those estimations.

REICHARD: You know, President Trump promised just last month that help was on the way. Is there a path to regime change that doesn't involve outside help? And how much do you think the military buildup has emboldened the protesters to come out again?

SLAVIN: You know, that's a really hard question to answer. 

Again, the solution is going to have to come from within Iran and it's going to probably have to come from within the Iranian regime. The Supreme Leader of the country is 86 going on 87. He will pass from the scene, there will be others in the military and with within the clerical ranks who will move forward. 

And one of the things I hope the United States is trying to do is to identify people within the regime that it might be able to work with, perhaps similar to what it did with Venezuela. This is more realistic than expecting that the son of the Shah is going to return, you know, triumphant, and the whole country will fall down before him. That is very unlikely. 

Most people think there is likely to be some sort of military regime based on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that might be less hostile to the United States and a little bit more tolerant of the Iranian people. 

There's also the possibility of chaos, civil war, something like what we've seen in Syria or Sudan, with external actors trying to pick winners and losers. So it's, it's not a happy prospect, and we should be very clear eyed about the potential downsides of regime change, as well as the potential benefits.

REICHARD: Final question here, Barbara. What do you see as the best-case scenario for the people of Iran as far as how this situation ends?

SLAVIN: Well, I think an agreement that relieves some of the onerous economic sanctions, that allows people to breathe, that supports the currency so people can afford to show their views about various subjects would be good. And then obviously internal change within Iran that is accepted by the system, because they cannot go on like this in perpetuity, opposed to the views of 80% of the population.

REICHARD: Is there anything that you really want to get in here that I didn't give you the opportunity to answer a question?

SLAVIN: Yeah, I don't think President Trump should feel that he has to take military action just because he's assembled a so-called Armada. To take military action without a clear goal, without a full appreciation of the potential consequences, would be very, very irresponsible. And he is our Commander in Chief, and he has to take these decisions of war and peace very, very seriously.

REICHARD: Barbara Slavin is a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. 

Barbara, thank you so much, appreciate it. 

SLAVIN: You're welcome. Thank you very much for asking, appreciate it.

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