Ceasefire under strain

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: It’s Tuesday, the 21st of October.

Glad to have you along for today’s edition of The World and Everything in It. Good morning, I’m Mary Reichard.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: And I’m Myrna Brown.

Up first, clashes continue in Gaza.

After President Trump’s visit to Israel last week, members of Hamas fought with other militias in Gaza City.

Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked Trump about it on Sunday.

BARTIROMO: As soon as you left, Hamas executed seven people, and then they went on to execute 30 more. Do you believe they really will disarm?

TRUMP: Well, they promised they would. They said they would. It's down that they would. Now they said they were gang members, etc, etc. You know, but these are very violent people.

REICHARD: Meanwhile, Hamas fighters killed two members of Israel’s Defense Force and Israel responded with airstrikes. On Sunday, Israel announced the ceasefire was back in effect.

With surviving Israeli hostages now back home, what’s next for Hamas?

BROWN: Joining us now to talk about it is retired U.S. Marine Colonel Darren Duke; he formerly served as an attache to Israel.

DARREN DUKE: Good morning, Mary.

REICHARD: Let’s talk a bit about the clashes in Gaza…who are these clans Hamas has been trading bullets with?

DUKE: So the social fabric of Gaza is made up of clans and tribes, like many Arab societies are, and so these are historic family networks and social networks that pre-exist the Hamas rule and have been in Gaza for generations. And they are perhaps seen as a parallel governance arrangement, were Hamas to disappear.

REICHARD: It sounds like there’s a few snags for completing Phase 1 of the peace plan. Can you tell us about them?

DUKE: Sure, so the first parts of phase one went relatively smoothly. Israel released 1950 Palestinian prisoners, some 200 or so who were serving life sentences for acts of terror inside Israel and against Israelis, and Hamas released the remaining living hostages. And then after that, there's been a trickle of the release of the bodies of the murdered hostages that remain inside Gaza. And this has been the first friction that the ceasefire has met.

The second has been obviously this outbreak of violence between the clans and Hamas as Hamas has brutally sought to reestablish control over Gaza and the areas that it enjoys a majority of the force in. And that also, within the last 24-48 hours, there's also been a resumption of hostilities between elements of Hamas and the Israeli Defense Forces. It's unclear what level of centralized command and control Hamas leadership exercised over those elements, and that's been one of the issues under discussion. But the fact is, is that Hamas elements and Israeli military elements have resumed hostilities. That seems to have been restored, but those are all should be seen as warning lights on the dashboard of the ceasefire deal.

REICHARD: What do we know about those terrorists Israel released? Could that be a problem for the future? I recall the planners of October 7th were previously prisoners Israel released.

DUKE: This is always a topic of discussion in Israeli society about the merits of releasing those who are known terrorists and those who've been through the Israeli justice system. How is this justice if those who have murdered Israeli citizens and violated Israeli security are released?

The other side of the equation is a more perhaps pragmatic approach that says, in order to move things forward in the future, sometimes we have to make distasteful decisions and take distasteful actions. And releasing these terrorists is part of a pragmatic approach. And even those who would make that approach will say, if they return to violence in the future, Israel always has the option of targeting and either killing or re-arresting those terrorists in the future.

And so those are the two approaches as the Israelis look at that issue. Historically, the pragmatic side has won out in those decisions, that it's been seen as more worthwhile to get particularly living hostages back alive than to hold on to Palestinian prisoners who are guilty of crimes against Israelis.

REICHARD: Do you know, what does “phase two” call for? And based on this current trajectory that we're on, do you think that's feasible?

DUKE: Yeah, that's a great question. That's the question of the day. So it's very important to pay attention to all 20 points in President Trump's proposal, the specific points related to the withdrawal of Israeli forces is predicated on completion of the delivery of the hostage bodies back to Israel, and to the formation and deployment of an international stabilization force that will take over the territory that is presently held by Israel in Gaza. And the entrance of that force has preconditions itself. And the countries that are supposed to contribute forces to that stabilization force are watching to see if the conditions will emerge for that turnover. And right now, as long as there is violence going on, and the hostage bodies aren't returned, and Hamas is starting to signal that it refuses to disarm. And that's the key rub, right there. Then phase two is looking increasingly in doubt, and that is the issue.

Now, having said that we're talking about the ceasefire at the very tactical level, there's a strategic level to this whole phase two that needs to be kept in mind, and that is Israel's strategic considerations. About, for example, allowing Turkish forces, or Turkey, which is a competitor, at least, if not adversary at most, into adjacent territory to the State of Israel, which it has not enjoyed. And there are Israelis who look at that potential with great distress, because Turkey has been mentioned in terms of a guarantor of this emerging peace agreement. Well, guarantor status is the exact status that they were given in the mid 70s relating to Cyprus. And we see what happened in 74 and 75 when Turkey invaded Eastern Cyprus on the pretext of guarding Turkish residents. And so there are strategic factors about the countries that want to contribute and what their interests are, and those countries provoke varying levels of concern from the Israelis.

And so the ceasefire at phase two is looking increasingly in doubt, as long as those both strategic and tactical issues cannot be addressed effectively. And so this really is going to be a test for President Trump and his team as to whether or not the structural issues that are mitigating against a successful phase two can actually be overcome.

REICHARD: Final question here, Darren, I’ll put Maria Bartiromo’s question for President Trump to you. Do you think Hamas will actually agree to lay down their arms for good?

DUKE: I do not think that it is possible for Hamas to set aside the use of violence to achieve their ends. I think they have shown themselves committed to the use of violence as the means for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and they have never altered that course in their history. And so I think it is unlikely that they will abandon the use of force willingly.

REICHARD: Darren Duke is a retired U.S. Marine Colonel who served in the Middle East. Thanks so much!

DUKE: You’re welcome, Mary.

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