Cal Thomas: Sowing seeds of defeat

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MARY REICHARD, HOST: Today is Thursday, August 21st. Good morning! This is The World and Everything in It from listener-supported WORLD Radio. I’m Mary Reichard.

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: And I’m Myrna Brown. Here’s WORLD commentator Cal Thomas with a little lesson in civics and how humans behave.

CAL THOMAS: During the high inflation days of the Biden administration, many of the less than well-off were forced to cut back on their spending, whether it was food, gasoline, or in some cases medication. Some migrated from blue states to red ones where taxes, housing, and prices were often lower.

Blue states are reacting to losing residents not by reducing taxes, but by raising them. Their philosophy seems to be that they are losing money so taxes must be raised to make up for the shortfall. The exact opposite should happen, but they are so wedded to “tax the wealthy” they can’t see any other way.

Democrat Maryland Governor Wes Moore signed a bill in May which increases income taxes on residents making more than $500,000 a year. His republican predecessor Larry Hogan touted that his administration cut state taxes by $4.7 billion over his eight years in office. Under his watch the state’s economy moved from 49th to 6th in the nation. Hogan claimed to have left behind a $5.5 billion surplus and $3 billion in a rainy-day fund. That surplus is gone…and likely among the reasons why Maryland is experiencing a net population outflow.

A Wall Street Journal editorial points out the potential political fallout for Democrats from this modern great migration. Between 2020 and 2024 California lost nearly one and a half million residents to other states. New York wasn’t that far behind, losing nearly a million more. Illinois lost more than 400,000.

Guess which two states are benefitting the most from the influx of new people? Texas and Florida. These two states gained the equivalent of West Virginia’s entire population. Other states to see newcomers include Utah, Idaho, Arizona and North Carolina.

The political benefits to these lower taxing states could be seen in coming elections. The Journal predicts Democrats could lose as many as 10 house seats in 2030, the year of the next census. This would likely overcome the gerrymandering California and Illinois are fashioning as they draw districts to give Democrats an even larger advantage than they currently enjoy.

For those who don’t remember or never took high school civics, here is the way the process is supposed to work. Census data taken every 10 years in even decades determines the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives. The House is currently fixed at 435 members. States gaining population may gain seats, while states with slower growth or declines may lose seats. This is the blue states’ great fear.

Following the census and apportionment, states redraw their congressional and state legislative district boundaries to reflect population shifts and ensure districts have roughly equal populations.

According to the Campaign Legal Center Independent Redistricting Commissions, separate from state legislatures, are then responsible for drawing district boundaries.

It doesn’t take a political genius to realize that if people are taxed more on what they have earned, many—including businesses—will look for places that tax them less. Democrats who think raising taxes on the successful will benefit them in future elections, may be sowing seeds for future electoral defeats.

I’m Cal Thomas.

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