Brad Littlejohn: Demographic decline

NICK EICHER, HOST: Today is Tuesday, April 15th. Good morning! This is The World and Everything in It from listener-supported WORLD Radio. I’m Nick Eicher.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: And I’m Mary Reichard. Up next, WORLD Opinions contributor Brad Littlejohn on falling birthrates worldwide—and the consequences of a shrinking population.

BRAD LITTLEJOHN: I was recently in Budapest for a gathering sponsored by the Danube Institute on “Family Formation and the Future.” At the opening reception, I found myself chatting with the ambassador from South Korea. A country with a birth rate approaching 0.7 per woman. He admitted that the country’s military is already struggling to fill its ranks. Korea’s military-age population is set to plunge by nearly half in the coming years. Indeed, even if South Korea does not fall prey to a foreign invader in the coming decades, it is not hard to imagine a bleak future: its social security and healthcare systems certain to break down, its people to grow poorer, its cities to become wastelands.

Such a future seems plausible for most of the world…at least according to Louise Perry, author of the haunting essay, “Modernity’s Self-Destruct Button.” She writes that the data seem clear: Once societies pass a per capita income threshold around $10,000 per year, they begin to lose their will to reproduce themselves…children simply get in the way of too many material pleasures. Economist Catherine Pakaluk of The Catholic University of America put a finer point on this theory: before modern technology, children were extremely useful to many human ends. Now, for any individual couple, they serve little purpose except emotional fulfillment. For many, that itch can be scratched by just one child—or perhaps even a dog instead.

Do we dare then accept that the desire to bear children is unnatural as Pakaluk suggests? Or that humans will avoid it unless economic incentives drive them to it? I don’t think we need to concede such dire conclusions, even if large families will be the exception, not the rule, in a technological age. For the reality is that when two people truly give themselves in committed love to one another, they have a natural desire to see this love bear fruit by bringing new life into the world. Brad Wilcox, a sociologist from the University of Virginia, pointed to consistent evidence that recent declines in birth rates are driven almost entirely by declines in marriage. Why? Wilcox candidly asserts because there are so few good men to marry these days. Far too many men lack the self-discipline to work hard and provide for wives, the strength and grit to protect them, and the focus to pay attention to them. Big Tech and rampant pornography have only made matters worse. Part of this is simply a feedback loop; society attacked masculinity and gave men an excuse to check out, so today’s young men have grown up without strong male exemplars. And now they’re in danger of passing on their warped habits to the next generation—if there is a next generation.

With so many and such complex causes, the birth dearth might seem to be an insoluble crisis. That said, there is some evidence from places like Hungary, that aggressive government spending aimed at pro-family policies and messaging can at least nudge birth rates modestly higher. But above all, attitudes are shaped through examples. But above all, attitudes are shaped through examples–for instance, J.D. Vance’s very public celebration of his own children in recent months. Such examples could subtly encourage more people to give parenthood a try. And introducing common sense regulation into our corrosive tech regime is a must, if we are to raise children capable of raising their own.

Above all, a revival of faith is critical. All the data shows that religious families are far more likely to bear children, because they grasp the essential goodness of humanity and that there is more to life than personal pleasure. Thankfully, as the recent Pew survey suggested, the long decline of faith may not be predestined to continue. Cultural trend lines can actually go up as well as down. Is it too much to hope that the trendlines toward demographic winter may yet be reversed as well?

I’m Brad Littlejohn.

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