A fragile pause in a complex conflict

MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It, the ceasefire in Israel.

SOUND: [HOSTAGES REUNITING WITH FAMILY]

On Sunday, three people held by Hamas for 469 days reunited with their families. The three women are the first of 33 hostages to be released over the next six weeks. In exchange, Israel is releasing almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and has agreed to stop trying to decimate Hamas, at least for now.

LINDSAY MAST, HOST: The ceasefire deal is just one of a number of major issues the new administration will be dealing with in the coming weeks. Joining us now to talk about what’s ahead is Will Inboden. He served on the staff of the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, and now teaches at the University of Florida. He’s also a commentator for WORLD Opinions.

Will, Good morning

WILL INBODEN: Good morning, Lindsay. Great to be with you.

MAST: To start, tell us about this ceasefire deal. The first exchange: 90 Palestinian prisoners for these first three hostages…why is it so seemingly lopsided and are there other similar imbalances?

INBODEN: Yeah, I mean, the first thing we have to say is it is a very notable deal, But you're right. It's also very inequitable. The overall terms are something like Israel releasing over a thousand Palestinian militants in exchange for potentially just 33 Israeli hostages being released. But for Israel, which places a rightly tremendous value on the lives of each and every one of its citizens, it's still a cost worth paying. As we saw those images for the three young Israeli women who were released and reunited with their families, it's a very special occasion and only raises the hopes and expectations of more releases forthcoming because the hostages have endured just truly unspeakably horrific existence over the last 400 some days.

MAST: Hamas is claiming this as a win for them… but it looks like the terror group is at least depleted so is that true and what about Israel’s position with its other enemies like Iran and its proxy Hezbollah?

INBODEN: Yeah, Israel is really at a crossroads right now. I mean, you first, the conflict with Hamas and Gaza, it's in this uncertain phase where there is a six-week ceasefire. Israel has had some substantial battlefield gains, right? They've killed or otherwise liquidated or detained most of Hamas' leadership. And yet, it's not a complete win.

Hamas still has fighting capabilities. Its terrorist fighters are returning to some of their different garrisons and outposts in Gaza and potentially pose a renewed threat. Prime Minister Netanyahu has some tough choices to make about what if any sort of occupation or continued fighting he may want to do after the ceasefire of Hamas poses a continued threat.

Israel also had a substantial success in degrading Hezbollah to their north and even more virulent threat sponsored by Iran with some of this remarkable intelligence and military operations over the last few months. But Israel's biggest enemy remains the Islamic Republic of Iran itself, sponsors Hezbollah, sponsors Hamas and some of these other proxies targeting Israel. So these are some of the tough choices that Israel is facing in a very difficult neighborhood.

MAST: With yesterday's inauguration, both former President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are claiming credit for the ceasefire. What do you think should go down in the history books and were there other factors at play?

INBODEN: Yeah, it's hard to miss some of the parallels with 1981 and an outgoing one-term Democratic president who leaves office very unpopular on the weekend and then hostage releases in the Middle East and a new Republican president coming in. I will say though, as a matter for the historical record, it's clear that in a pretty remarkable display of bipartisanship, the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration did cooperate pretty closely, including sending joint delegations over to the Middle East over the last couple of weeks. And despite their political differences, there was an agreement, a shared partnership here to get this deal done.

MAST: Turning our attention to a few other hot spots in the world…you just returned from a trip to Taiwan … can you tell us about what we can expect for U.S.-Taiwan relations going forward?

INBODEN: Yeah, it's a very interesting trip. I was part of a delegation of senior former U.S. policymakers sponsored by the Ronald Reagan Institute and I would say the overwhelming takeaway for me was Taiwan's anxiety. They are very anxious about continued pressure, the possibility even of an invasion or blockade or other aggression from China.

I will say, impressed at how much Taiwan is wanting to do for its own self-defense.

They have increased their defense spending by about 80 % over the last nine years. They're now spending two and a half percent of their GDP on their own military and showing their own willingness and resolve to sacrifice and to fight.

So there's real eagerness on the part of Taiwan to, I think, upgrade their partnership with the United States under a Trump administration. And I will say, I certainly hope the Trump administration will reciprocate that.

MAST: Can you also touch on the Russia-Ukraine war? On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised a quick end to the conflict once he was in office. What do you see happening on that front?

INBODEN: Yeah, Russia Ukraine is a really hard one to predict.

Ukraine still shows a lot of resolve to keep fighting for its country and Putin shows no interest whatsoever in negotiating or a compromise. But, you know, so Russia is kind of grinding forward in its counteroffensive, and tying these things together, I'll say I heard a lot of concern in Taiwan about Russia and Ukraine, because Taiwan worries if the West allows Russia to be completely, allows Russia to succeed in Ukraine, or allows Ukraine to completely fall, Taiwan...worries that that might be a signal that they are next, that Beijing could then turn its aggressions towards them. with Russia, Ukraine, I don't see any prospect in the near term of a resolution or ceasefire of some sort, but I hope I'd be wrong.

MAST: A lot of conflicts going on. Anything else we need to be aware of Will?

INBODEN: It is a dangerous, worrisome world, terrorism, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, but there are opportunities there for the United States. And I certainly hope and pray that President Trump and his pretty capable team can take advantage of those.

MAST: Springboarding from that, Will, I'm curious what you make of all of the world leaders who were at the inauguration yesterday. There were some spaces in that rotunda being taken up by people who were on the world stage and not necessarily American. What do you make of that?

INBODEN: Yeah, I think it's a reminder that for all the challenges we have here in the United States, sometimes it can be helpful to look at our country through the lens of others around the world and be reminded of everything that we do have to offer and a lot of ways what a model we are to the rest of the world. And I hope my fellow Americans can take some encouragement from that, even as we're realistic about the challenges we continue to face.

MAST: Will Inboden teaches at the University of Florida and served on the staff of the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. Thank you, Will.

INBODEN: Thank you, Lindsay. It's great to be with you.

WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.