The Yom Kippur War and the shape of today’s Middle East

1948. 1956. 1967. 1973. Israel defended itself once-a-decade during its early years, but after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel has not suffered a major attack from its Arab neighbors. As we reflect on the 50th anniversary of that war, we can look back on how the outcomes of the Yom Kippur War shaped today’s Middle East.

Until 1973, the United States was not a consistent supporter of Israel. Although Britain called for a Jewish homeland in the Balfour Declaration (1917), it took three decades and the Nazi Holocaust for the United Nations to call for Jewish and Arab (Palestinian) states in the formerly Ottoman region. Then, President Harry S. Truman recognized the new State of Israel (1948) over the objections of his own State Department. From day one Jews had to defend themselves to build a Jewish state, and the United States, like much of the West, was ambivalent about providing weapons and intelligence.

It is well known that Jews defended themselves in 1948, establishing the State of Israel, and then went to war with assistance from France and Britain in 1956 after Egypt closed the Suez Canal to shipping. After battlefield victories in 1948 and 1956, despite small numbers and inferior weapons, Israel had to fight Egypt, Syria, and Jordan again in 1967 in the Six Day War. At no point during this time was Israel a client-state of the United States. Indeed, Israel looked as much to Communist countries as to the West for supplies, because many Western countries sought to maintain the flow of oil and special post-colonial relationships with Arab governments.

In October 1973 the Jewish high holy days, including the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur), coincided with Ramadan. Few would have expected Arabs to attack during Ramadan, but experts did note the massing of Syrian and Egyptian troops on Israel’s borders. As late as Oct. 6, the day the Arab armies attacked Israel, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger reportedly told Tel Aviv to avoid preemptive strikes or no Western aid would be come.

Israel’s top brass did not take the threat of imminent attack seriously in the weeks leading up to Oct. 6. It was only in the last hours of Oct. 5 that elements of the Israeli military swung into action, calling up reservists and putting troops on alert.

History records that overwhelming Arab force pushed far into Israeli-held territory, but that the valiant Israeli counterpunch turned the tide. Historians debate whether Israel’s nuclear deterrent played a role: it appears that a private threat of launching tactical nuclear weapons may have induced the United States to finally rush military aid to Israel.

By Oct. 24, the situation had flipped: Israel had Egypt’s Third Army entirely encircled and was just 100 kilometers from Cairo. Many in Israel called for deepening the war, as reports (now well-documented) of mutilation and torture of Israeli POWs became apparent. Nevertheless, Israel did accept a UN-brokered peace deal.

The Yom Kippur War shaped today’s Middle East. Israeli and Arab diplomats met for the first time since 1948. A few years later, Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat called for peace, resulting in the Camp David Accords of 1979 and a cold peace that has endured between Israel, Egypt, and other governments for the past 40 years.

The Yom Kippur War disrupted Israeli public life. A series of investigations resulted in the dismissal of a number of senior Israeli military officials, propelling Ariel Sharon and others to high positions. Israeli politics had been dominated by center-left politicians (Labor Party) since its founding, but the next major national elections resulted in the first center-right victory, led by Likud’s Menachem Begin.

The United States finally became Israel’s prime ally. The American public, disgusted by the massacre of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972 and concerned about Palestinian terrorism, increasingly saw Israel as the underdog constantly harassed by its neighbors. This gave political cover to U.S. leaders to finally give full-throated support to Israel.

Because the U.S. airlift of arms and materiel, Operation Nickel Grass, only began on Oct. 14, a full week into the war, Israel determined to build its own military industrial complex. Today, Israel’s cyber, intelligence, and armaments industries are extremely sophisticated.

Over time, Israel’s security forces have figured out how to quietly collaborate with Cairo, Amman, and Riyadh on terrorism and other issues of mutual concern.

In 1973 Saudi Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to use an oil embargo to punish Western support for Israel. The “shock” in rising oil prices moved the West to seek alternate sources of petroleum in Africa and Latin America, emphasize fuel efficiency, and consider energy alternatives.

Yom Kippur 1973 was not just a holiday tarnished by violence. It was a break with the past, causing a changing pattern of trends that continue to shape today’s Middle East.