Will the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hold up?

Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement last week in a deal brokered by the United States and France to stop the fighting in Lebanon.

This fight intensified two months ago, but it actually began nearly a year before that, when the Shiite terrorist group barraged Israel with thousands of rockets and missiles in an attempt to side with Hamas after its vicious attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The stated goals of Hamas and Hezbollah stem from their religious disposition and have always been clear—the eradication of the Jewish state. But this ceasefire brings hope to many displaced in the region, especially in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, who have suffered greatly under constant fighting.

In Israel’s latest war against Hezbollah, the terrorist group was completely humiliated. Hezbollah’s top leaders, including its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and his immediate successor, were all eliminated, in addition to thousands of its fighters. This is significant. Similarly, tunnels, weapons, and properties owned by Hezbollah were decimated. There is no doubt that the military capabilities of the terrorist group have been nearly crushed. It will take decades for it to regain military prowess and restore momentum, but this is precisely what the ceasefire deal attempts to ensure will never happen.

The agreement designates a two-month truce—an initial period that began on Wednesday—that requires Hezbollah to end any armed presence in southern Lebanon, thus allowing Israel to move its troops to its side of the border. The core of the deal is that Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanese territory will not carry out any offensive actions against Israel and, in return, Israel will not launch attacks against targets in Lebanon, whether on land, in the air, or by sea. Most importantly, the deal identifies the official Lebanese Armed Forces as the only armed entities permitted to bear arms or operate forces in southern Lebanon.

This is a significant blow against the militant Shiites who essentially operated freely in southern Lebanon under Iranian influence. To ensure the fulfillment of this important item in the deal, the agreement insists that the purchase, supply, or production of all military arms in Lebanon will be supervised by the Lebanese government alone, and all other facilities involved in the production of weapons must be dismantled. To ensure accountability toward the international community, the deal states that Israel and Lebanon will recognize the importance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and any potential violations of these commitments will be reported to a committee headed up by the United States and France and to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.

The deal offers Israel and Lebanon relief from hostilities and fighting that drove more than 1.2 million Lebanese and 50,000 Israelis from their homes.

But the important question is: Will the ceasefire deal hold up?

While we all should hope for this agreement to stand firm and lead to a lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel, the historical perspective makes the picture less optimistic. The ceasefire deal is significantly fragile and its violation is almost certain. In fact, as of now, both parties have already begun trading accusations of violations. The reality is that, for tactical and military purposes, both parties will not be satisfied with peace with unaccomplished goals.

Hezbollah will never accept defeat. With all the humiliation and destruction it has encountered in the past two months, the group still claims it will continue its resistance against the Jewish enemy. Even after the ceasefire began, many Hezbollah members appeared in videos celebrating and declaring that they won. These terrorists are driven by a sick ideology that keeps feeding hate and anger against anything Jewish and thrives by renewing Islamic vows and slogans promoting the eradication of the Jews. Without these slogans and sentiments, this terrorist group will have no cause or reason to exist. Additionally, Iran needs to ensure its presence on the Mediterranean coast to have access to attacking Israel. And through Hezbollah, Iran can seize that window. Hezbollah doesn’t care about Lebanon or its people but about Iran and its intentions in the region

But Israel also isn’t certain that this ceasefire deal will achieve lasting peace. After all, Israel knows its neighboring enemies quite well. Iran-backed militias are thriving in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and they all have one target. Yes, Israel hopes things calm down and the displaced Israelis will return to the north soon, but the ceasefire deal is built on shaky ground, and hostilities are always looming.

This is a moment for the official Lebanese government to choose a better destiny and immediately begin the process of selecting a president who cares chiefly for the prosperity of Lebanon without any regard for armed Iran-backed militia.

Let’s all hope the ceasefire deal survives, but time will tell.