What’s next for Ukraine?

As we approach and reflect on the third-year milestone since Russia again invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, we need to consider what might happen going forward. First, it’s important to recognize how we got here.

For the last millennium, there has clearly been a distinct Ukrainian identity, despite the revisionist claims of Vladimir Putin to the contrary. Putin’s (and previously Russia’s) history of attacks and bullying tactics, particularly across what is today Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, are well known, and multi-ethnic empires, such as the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, Polish, Lithuanian, and others, have come and gone. But the simple fact is that Ukrainians sought independence and autonomy throughout much of the 20th century.

However, faced with brutal repression by the Russians, then the Nazis, then the Russians again, and now Putin (Russia again), the record is clear: Whether it was from Lenin and Stalin starving the Ukrainian people to cow them into submission, or from death squads during World War II, the Ukrainian people have suffered and yet retained a distinct Ukrainian cultural identity. At the end of the Cold War, Ukraine gained independence, like many other so-called Soviet Socialist Republics such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Ukraine’s size and strategic location and the fact that nuclear weapons were on its soil put it in a particularly contentious situation—one that was mollified through compromises. Russia and the West guaranteed Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in exchange for allowing the nuclear weapons to be dismantled and removed from Ukrainian territory. But for the better part of the past two decades, Moscow has been interfering in the affairs of its neighbors, including Ukraine.

It’s easy to forget just how close NATO and Russian troops came to a clash in the Balkans in the late 1990s. Russia interfered in Ukrainian elections, and invaded Georgia, and sent so-called peacekeepers to protect Armenian Orthodox Christians in the ethnic enclave of Karabakh, but then sold them out by looking the other way when they were ethnically cleansed by Azerbaijan in 2023. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 seizing the Crimean Peninsula. Russia’s cyberattacks, political interference, use of mercenaries, and deployment of so-called “Little Green Men,” as their unmarked military personnel were known, is well documented.

Within Ukraine, there have been those who have wanted to stay in the orbit of “Mother Russia,” and there has been plenty of pressure by Russia to keep its cronies in power in Ukraine. That created a tumultuous Ukrainian political system that led to the Orange (pro-democratic) Revolution and the Maidan Square Revolt, and then the election of Ukraine’s current President Zelensky.

The overall story, however, is that the majority of the Ukrainian people have clearly wanted to be free of Russian interference and more oriented to the West. A majority of the Ukrainian people also do not see NATO as a threat, but rather see the Russian bear as the real threat. Now they have three years of valiant warfare (in self-defense) to show for it. Ukraine was a poorly armed adversary, and Russia’s initial strike drove the defenders nearly to the gates of Kyiv. It is truly stunning what the Ukrainians were able to accomplish with extremely limited weaponry and limited international support in those first days, by their valor and the clever use of technology, followed by abundant international support. These have allowed a nation of just 40 million to stand up to one of the most powerful militaries on the face of the earth.

The destruction and the long-term effects are difficult to fully measure. Of Ukraine’s 40 million people, at least six to eight million have become refugees in neighboring countries, and its army of a million is filled with many men and women who dropped their jobs in bakeries and factories and farms (and even at the national symphony) to defend their country. The estimated death toll is 12,300 civilians and close to 70,000 Ukrainian military forces. It’s estimated that the Russians have kidnapped at least 20,000 Ukrainian children, putting some up for adoption with Russian families, and turning others into brainwashed anti-Ukrainian warriors.

Even if the Russians were to pull out today, it would take many years to remove explicit ordnance and dispose of mines, not to mention engage in grief counseling and meet the needs of widows and orphans. These are the historical facts of this war. The history, the valor, and the suffering of the Ukrainian people must be taken into account as we seek order and justice and, finally, peace for Ukraine.