What to look for in the first Republican debate

When Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas traveled Illinois for a series of seven debates in advance of the U.S. Senate election of 1858, they both set forth foundational theories about the nature of man and of government with speeches still discussed by scholars today. Their debates lasted for hours, drew great crowds, and addressed issues of historic magnitude.

Don’t expect the same level of discourse from the first 2024 Republican Presidential Debate, to be broadcast on Fox News this evening from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Eight candidates will take the stage tonight, but the frontrunner will not be among them. Former president Donald Trump, who currently holds commanding leads in primary polling, has declined to attend. He explained on Truth Social that “The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had.” That’s certainly true—Trump’s name ID is universal, and base GOP voters are fully familiar with his presidency.

But the debate tonight will still serve two important functions. First, it might help consolidate the anti-Trump elements of the GOP behind a single alternative. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump consistently won pluralities in early primary states while everyone attacking him (Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, etc.) split the rest of the field, paving the way for Trump victories. By the time it was down to just Trump and Cruz, the primary was basically over due to the delegate count amassed by Trump by that point.

Republican leaders and megadonors are very aware of that lesson from recent history, and those who desire anyone-but-Trump to emerge as the nominee in 2024 are anxious to find a single candidate they can all agree on and consolidate behind. They may be willing to bend their own personal preference for a particular candidate if it means stopping Trump’s renomination. Thus far, many have seen Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the sole viable alternative to Trump. This debate will be a crucial early test of whether DeSantis can hold that spot, leading to increasing pressure on others to drop out, or whether someone else can catch fire. (Indeed, in the 2016 primary, most candidates’ six minutes of fame came right after their best debate performance.)

Second, Republican primary voters will tune in to the debate, even without Trump present. Americans love a good brawl, and for the political junkies who are active early in a campaign season, this is must-watch TV. Trump’s decision to decline was doubtless eased by the initial slump in Fox’s ratings after it parted ways with evening mainstay Tucker Carlson. But as Fox has settled into its new normal, its ratings are recovering, and this first debate is getting wide hype across the media landscape.

Though some, like corporate executive Vivek Ramaswamy and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, may adopt a more deferential approach to Trump, expect others to take off the kid-gloves and land punches on the absent front-runner. You can bet that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will retain his no-holds-barred posture toward the former president. DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Sen. Tim Scott face the need to emerge as the clear alternative to Trump and to cut into his support among the GOP base, both of which requires hitting hard on Trump.

If the debate draws good viewership, Trump may regret not participating when it turns into two hours of everyone tearing down Trump. Not only does he have a visceral need to defend himself, but if his opponents’ points hit home, he may see a downtick in his polling. Meanwhile, DeSantis is likely to be challenged by the rest of those on stage.

Debates are important. Much like standardized tests can only tell a college so much about an applicant, so debates can only tell voters so much about a candidate. But they ought not be discarded either, because they do provide lots of information about not only a candidate’s policy positions but also his or her instincts, personal style, and performance under pressure. Stewarding our votes well means knowing about the candidates for whom we vote, and tuning in for debates is a great tool to prepare well to participate in our democracy.