What to expect in politics in 2024

Back in January 2020, my colleagues on Capitol Hill and I were anticipating a busy spring before Congress recessed for the summer and the final stretch of that year’s campaign cycle. Days later, constituent services staffers began working on the plight of cruise-ship passengers quarantined off the coast due to a mysterious illness onboard. Then, just weeks later, the world shut down.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld once remarked that there are “known knowns” and “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.” Those categories come to mind as I prepare for the year ahead in Washington. By God’s grace, there will not be another global pandemic, but we know there are some major unknowns to come, and some surprises.

Known Knowns

Federal elections will dominate politics in 2024 as control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives are all up for grabs.

For months, polls have shown President Trump has a commanding lead over his Republican contenders. The results of the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 will be key. If Trump wins both, he will be the nominee and likely face President Biden in a rematch of the 2020 election. This will put the 10-20 percent of voters who aren’t enamored with either Trump or Biden in position to determine who becomes president.

Control of the U.S. Senate comes down to a handful of races involving Democratic incumbents from Republican-leaning states, including West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring; Arizona, where Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema faces a Democratic challenger and has yet to announce whether she plans to run for reelection; Montana, and Ohio.

Following the recent retirement of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican control of the House is down to 220-213. Retaining that slim majority will be a challenge. According to analyses from the University of Virginia Center for Politics there are currently 18 seats held by a Republican in districts that voted for President Biden in 2020, compared to just five seats held by a Democrat in districts that voted for President Trump.

Elections aside, the big fights in Congress are those that carried over from last year: government funding, foreign military assistance, border security, and the reauthorization of an intelligence gathering program, Section 702. Appropriations for the various government agencies expire on either Jan. 19 or Feb. 2, so Congress must either reach a deal on funding for fiscal year 2024 or pass another continuing resolution—likely made more agreeable by switching off the automatic spending cuts that were supposed to prevent another CR—before immediately turning to the same funding battles for FY 2025. (Sources indicated last night that a deal may have been reached.) Meanwhile, senators are still negotiating over border security provisions they hope will grease the skids for passage of a $100 billion supplemental spending bill that includes more than $60 billion for Ukraine and $12 billion for Israel.

Known Unknowns

President Trump has been indicted in multiple jurisdictions on charges ranging from business fraud to unlawful retention of national defense information to election interference. He is fighting these legal battles concurrently with trials set to begin in early spring, possibly after he has won the early primary states and cemented his status as the Republican nominee.

How long will these trials last? Will the former president be convicted? This is unprecedented territory in American history. Some speculate that conviction and possibly incarceration would make it impossible for President Trump to remain the nominee, leaving it to the Republican Party to replace him on the ballot. How would the former president’s loyal supporters respond to such an act? Others argue that these politically motivated prosecutions will only serve to kindle voters’ anger and bolster President Trump’s electoral chances.

On the Democratic side, it is hard to imagine President Biden choosing not to stand for reelection. However, faced with historically bad polling and clear evidence of his old age, voices in the Democratic Party are calling for an alternative. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is frequently cited as a possible replacement for Biden, though Vice President Kamala Harris might have something to say about being passed over. In terms of the political calendar, any alternative to Biden will have to arise quickly.

War in the Middle East and Eastern Europe will continue as Israel continues its mission to eradicate Hamas following the horrific terror attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and Ukraine enters its third year of pushing back against Russia’s invasion. Escalation is a major concern in 2024. Hezbollah militants from Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and other Iran-backed terrorist groups have recently increased provocations against Israel and attacked U.S. defenses. Meanwhile, in a New Year’s address Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China would “surely be reunified” with Taiwan. On Jan. 13, Taiwan will hold elections that will be closely watched worldwide as the next domino to fall in an extremely volatile area.

Unknown Unknowns

Something somewhere is going to catch us by surprise in 2024. It may be a political event, natural disaster, or act of violence. Whatever may come, Christians take comfort in the “known known” above all others: Ours is the God who sustains all things and in whom all things hold together. He is LORD of all and because of that we have nothing to fear. Rather, we confront the knowns and unknowns with confidence, undeterred in our mission to make Him known and to glorify Him forever.