We can turn the fertility crisis around

Some experts estimate that global fertility rates last year may have fallen below replacement levels for the first time in human history. A recent report in The Wall Street Journal reveals catastrophic birth rate declines across all income, education, and workforce participation levels, signaling a global demographic shift.

Demographic economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde warns of a looming “demographic winter” and the threat of shifts that could well lead to a socio-economic crisis that ultimately endangers Western civilization.

We must address the most pressing questions: Who will fund our aging population? How will we care for each other? How will we staff a strong military or fulfill our national workforce needs? With such vital questions unanswered, policy leaders and cultural institutions must advocate for a more pro-natalist vision of the future.

Any strategy to reverse the fertility crisis cannot rely on government policy alone or even primarily. Countries like Japan and Hungary have implemented strong pro-natal policies like fully paid parental leave, government-funded college, and expanded tax benefits. However, these policies have yet to affect the fertility rate. In the long term, they could be fruitful, but reversing the fertility crisis will require a far larger mindset change in the broader culture.

There is an under-reported thread of hope amid all this bad news. The Institute for Family Studies found that most people want more children than they have. So, the decrease in family size is not necessarily about desire—but circumstance and cultural expectation.

Raising large families is harder in the West today because parents increasingly have to do it alone. The breakdown of supportive communities, the loss of cultural institutions, and the disappearance of nearby extended family deter people from having more children. Parents are lonelier than ever, which makes everything harder, and there’s no immediate antidote to this problem.

In his book Family Unfriendly, Timothy P. Carney writes, “We have to build a society where parenthood is connective, not isolating.” Research finds that living closer to family and siblings leads women to have more children closer together at a younger age, but we’re farther apart than ever these days.

Parents also have unmanageable expectations, believing each child is owed a demanding amount of time, possessions, and opportunities. Given economic constraints, most families cannot afford to have more than one or two children if they adhere to this belief. When children are seen as budget items or luxury choices, they become dehumanized and less valued by society.

The delay and disappearance of marriage and the loss of faith and purpose also contribute to postponing babies or not having them at all. Religiosity in the West decreases annually, and with it, a sense of meaning. Unbelieving adults cling to religions of political activism, radical ideologies, or climate change. Still, such idols are no substitute for God, who created us with an innate need and desire and a command to “be fruitful and multiply.”

Nevertheless, we know a few things: Women want more babies and are more likely to have them when they have stronger communal ties, secure marriages, and extended family nearby. We also know that most women prefer to stay home with their children, despite cultural arguments against it. This combination of factors alone bodes well for the potential viability of increasing fertility rates. We also know that where faith and tradition are present, as in deeply religious communities like the Amish or Mormons, there is more incentive to see one’s beliefs carried on to the next generation.

The emergence of modern American parents resisting the status quo in public education is a positive development because they’re reasserting their authority regarding values and worldviews. Individual family values don’t stand a chance when children are “parented” by the internet and public school agendas. If parents believe they can bear and raise good humans who will glorify God and enhance the world, they may be interested in having more of them.

When we bring people and purpose back into family life, parents will inevitably choose to have more children. Promoting pro-family policies like flexible work, child tax credits, and age limits on social media cultivates a pro-family culture. Incentivizing marriage and educating young people to be well-rounded instead of just skilled workers will make marriage and parenthood more appealing.

Let’s form our culture around the needs and desires of families. They are the foundation upon which everything else happens, just as God intended.