Trump and abortion

Right up front, let me start with an honest admission. Put plainly, I have no idea what Donald J. Trump really believes about abortion. I follow that up with the honest guess that the former president also has little idea what he really believes about abortion. By his own description, his politics are transactional and his basic political framework is a combination of personality and populism. In terms of the coming election, what matters most when it comes to abortion and a host of other issues is what a Trump administration would do as compared to a Kamala Harris administration. That, dear reader, is a much clearer picture.

The 2024 election cycle has been traumatic for pro-life voters, and, given the challenges we face, it is likely to become more traumatic as Election Day draws closer. When it comes to the presidential election, Trump has infuriated his base of pro-life support with actions such as posting on his Truth Social platform that a second Trump administration would be “great for women and their reproductive rights.” His use of the term “reproductive rights” seemed to signal a clear and premeditated attempt to insinuate a shift toward abortion rights without using the word abortion—which is precisely why the abortion rights movement invented the term in the first place. He then made matters worse when he declined in an interview to oppose the abortion rights referendum in Florida. When the pro-life community exploded in protest, Trump came back to say he would vote against the Florida measure.

Observers on both the left and the right clearly understood what was going on. On the pro-life right, Andrew C. McCarthy of National Review reminded his readers that over a year ago he had penned an essay that asserted, “Trump Committed to a Political Opportunity, Not to the Pro-Life Cause.” On the abortion rights left, law professor Mary Ziegler observed, “Trump has spent the election season giving muddy answers in the hope of keeping anti-abortion voters close without alienating everyone else.” That is a disastrous strategy, as Trump has now learned. At least, we hope the lesson has been learned.

Trump has a long history when it comes to abortion. He was basically “pro-choice” for years, and his sister (who he said would be a great Supreme Court nominee) was a pro-abortion rights federal judge. All that seemed to change with the 2016 election cycle, even early in the primary season. Trump seized on the opportunity to run as a defender of the unborn and he made that pledge concrete with assurances about nominations he would make to the Supreme Court. In a debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Trump showed real fire on the abortion issue, and his administration followed through with important policy actions and public defense of the pro-life cause. His three nominees to the court were instrumental in reversing the atrocious Roe v. Wade decision in 2022.

That’s when the landscape changed. When the Dobbs decision reversing Roe was handed down, pro-lifers achieved a monumental goal, and the issue of abortion was sent back to the states. And yet, what followed was the forced realization that support for the pro-life cause among voters was far weaker than we had hoped. Abortion rights instantly became a front-burner issue for the “Party of Abortion,” also known as the Democrats. Fast forward to 2024 and Vice President Kamala Harris is running the most pro-abortion campaign in history. Her chosen running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, signed a truly radical abortion rights bill soon after Dobbs—a bill far more liberal than Roe, and a bill that prevents virtually any restriction on abortion, period.

This presented Trump with a great opportunity, and he is blowing it. Instead of pointing to the radicalism of the Harris-Walz platform, he has tried to land in some kind of artificial (and apparently moveable) island of fuzzy policy. He rightly condemns late-term abortion, even doing so against the brazen misrepresentations of the mainstream press. He infamously said that Florida’s ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy is “too short,” but he has now come out against a measure to rescind it. It does seem that Trump at least understands that he cannot possibly win if pro-life voters sit this election out.

Back to what Trump actually believes about abortion. I still have no confidence that I know. But I do know two things that loom large. The first is that a Harris win would mean we would have the most pro-abortion administration in American history. Even as Trump underlines his opposition to federal legislation on abortion, Harris demands a federal abortion rights bill—and such a bill would go far, far beyond Roe. Just look to Minnesota for confirmation. The second thing I know is that a Trump administration would be light-years more pro-life than a Harris administration in terms of policies, legislative moves, appointments, and nominations. That’s an honest assessment. In my view, this is only stating out loud what should be obvious to any honest observer.

After the Trump post about “reproductive rights” and his flubbed interview on the Florida referendum, pro-life activist Lila Rose came out strong against the Trump ticket’s confusion, saying, “The positions they are choosing to take are making it untenable for pro-life voters to get out the vote for them.” She was absolutely right. Many of us sent the signal as strongly as we could. I had joined with Rose, Princeton professor Robert P. George, Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, and others in calling upon the Republican Party to stand strong in the cause of life in the 2024 party platform. That effort failed, though the Republican platform is still light-years away from the Harris-Walz ticket on the issue.

The bottom line is what a Trump administration would do compared to what a Harris administration will do when it comes to the defense of unborn life. We easily see a huge difference there and it takes massive dishonesty to deny it. Sadly, that dishonesty is all around us and the media will exploit it.

Trump recently commented that abortion is not “an issue that runs toward us.” But he needs to remember that he cannot win without strong—very strong—pro-life support. The other side is not impressed with his equivocations on the issue, even as his base is endangered by any confusion. Pro-life voters do care what Donald Trump believes about abortion, but those same voters are far more concerned about what Trump would do in the Oval Office once again. He has precious few days to make that clear, knowing that the key question is not how many pro-abortion voters will vote against him but how many pro-life voters will vote for him.