The real difficulty begins for Trump

A month ago, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson attempted to pass a funding package for the government that relied on Democrats. He needed Democrats to fund the government because his own Republican conference was too divided to agree on anything. Once the speaker’s office made the plan public, only then did Republicans unite in opposition, forcing Johnson to revert to his original plan, of which he had previously been unable to get the necessary votes. That was a prelude to what will come.

To pass legislation in the House of Representatives, 218 members must agree. Republicans have 220 seats to 215 for the Democrats. But President Donald Trump has appointed several House members to positions in the executive branch, which means the GOP majority will be reduced to 217 seats temporarily and require 217 votes for legislation to pass. No margin for error there.

President Trump has several major and immediate priorities he wants passed. One is immigration reform. He will be able to do much through executive power. But he will need congressional approval for some portions of his plans. He also wants tax cuts. To get them, he risks dividing Republicans in the House.

New York Republicans insist on a restoration of the “SALT” deduction, a full deduction for state and local taxes on federal income taxes. In 2017, Republicans capped it. New York and California Republicans say they will oppose any new tax plan without the restoration of the full deduction. But restoring that will drive up how much the tax cut package might cost, which risks driving up the deficit and, in turn, risks arcane rules in the Senate that would otherwise allow the tax cuts to bypass filibuster rules.

Other Republicans are worried about the national debt. Every one-tenth of 1 percent increase in interest rates adds $30 billion in new debt service payments a year. As the national debt goes up, the government issues more bonds. The money spent by banks and individuals to buy the bonds is diverted from the private sector, which then slows down the growth of the economy. As the situation becomes more unstable, many congressional Republicans fear interest rates will go up, which starts a debt spiral and limits maneuverability for tax reform.

While congressional Republicans want to cut taxes, President Trump wants to impose tariffs. His team seems dogmatically convinced that tariffs will help American industry rebuild, but every mainstream economist from the right to the left claims tariffs will raise the costs of goods in the United States, which is inflationary. If the economists are right, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to stop the inflation from the tariffs, which will increase debt service payments on the national debt due to the increased interest rates and will, again, limit the ability to cut taxes.

In December, Speaker Johnson could not get Republicans to agree on a plan to increase the debt ceiling and fund the government. He relied on Democrats. Only after then-President-elect Trump reversed his support for the plan and called on Republicans to reject it did the plan fall apart. He was able to bring unity within the GOP at that moment, but now President Trump is in office. In two years, Republicans will face midterm elections, and President Trump will be a lame duck.

Typically, the party that controls the White House does poorly in midterm elections, which sparks a more independent streak among House Republicans in toss-up districts. Additionally, multiple senators who were just elected have terms in office that will outlast President Trump. John Curtis is the new senator from Utah, a red state whose voters appreciate Republicans who stand up to President Trump. Dave McCormick just won a narrow victory in Pennsylvania, a state that went for Donald Trump but also wobbles to Democrats. They both will be in the Senate after President Trump leaves office. Others might retire and will not care what the president thinks. His honeymoon could end quickly.

On her way out the door on Jan. 17, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed Congress that the debt ceiling had been reached despite Congress voting to raise it a month ago. December’s vote to fund the government was a foreshadowing of the difficulties ahead. With a narrow House majority and a Senate majority that has an independent streak, the 47th president of the United States will need all his charm to stroke congressional egos and all his wits to cut deals to accomplish his agenda.