The great migration

Historians call the decades in the United States between 1910 and 1970 “The Great Migration.” During these years, upwards of 6 million African Americans left the South and Southwest and relocated to other regions. The Great Migration was in response to the prevalence of white supremacy and the absence of economic opportunity in the states that had once comprised the Confederacy. The economic, educational, and political opportunities for African Americans were restricted by oppressive Jim Crow laws.

Before World War I, many African Americans moved to the great urban centers of the Northeast and Midwest. New York, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Cleveland each included significant populations of black Americans moving north. After World War II, the exodus shifted to the West Coast. This second phase of The Great Migration was part of a larger, multiethnic mass relocation of poor Southerners westward. The migrants were chasing after, and ultimately contributed to, the postwar economic boom that fueled dramatic population growth and economic prosperity in California, Oregon, and Washington.

Recent years have witnessed a new interstate mass migration. However, the destination has changed. Americans are moving to the South and Southwest from other parts of the country. A Great Southern Migration is underway, and the pattern shows no sign of abating any time soon.

According to a recent report, approximately 7.5 million Americans moved to a new state in 2023, a number that is consistent with the ten-year average. Of the ten states that welcomed the highest number of net migrants, seven of them are in the South and Southwest. Texas and Florida topped the list, and those two states have traded the top spot in recent years. Other states in the region that have benefited from large numbers of migrants include the Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

A notable feature of the Great Southern Migration is that the direction runs opposite of the earlier Great Migration. Most of the people moving to the South and Southwest are leaving the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and West Coast. The states that witnessed the greatest population loss include California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Massachusetts. These population losses are also consistent with a ten-year trend.

To illustrate the broader pattern, consider four states. California lost the highest number of residents in 2023, at approximately 259,000 people. Around 98,000 Californians relocated to Texas, and another 37,000 Californians moved to Florida. New York lost the second-highest number of residents, at around 187,000 people. 72,000 New Yorkers moved to Florida, while another 30,000 New Yorkers left for Texas. Of the 138,000 new net residents who moved to Texas in 2023, 128,000 came from California and New York. Of the 137,000 new residents who moved to Florida that same year, 109,000 came from California and New York.

When we consider the factors that drove the Great Migration and those now driving the Great Southern Migration, we find both continuity and discontinuity. The obvious point of continuity is a desire for greater economic opportunity. Housing prices are dramatically less expensive in most of the South and Southwest compared to the states losing residents. Taxes in the region are also considerably lower. Florida, Texas, and Tennessee also have no state income tax. Many Americans believe the road to greater economic flourishing leads southward.

The key discontinuity with past migrations is found in socio-cultural factors. In recent years, there has at least been significant correlation, and arguably direct causation, between a state’s adoption of increasingly progressive social policies and its population loss. To put it plainly, Americans are fleeing some of our nation’s bluest states for more conservative parts of the country.

Traditional social values and economic conservatism is a combination that attracts new residents. Reasonable taxes. A commitment to upholding law and order. Laws that curtail elective abortion. A celebration of traditional families. Opposition to normalizing transgenderism. Affirmation of religious liberty. Respect for America’s Judeo-Christian heritage. Support for the military and honor for veterans. A commitment to reforming immigration. Increased access to educational freedom.

There are no perfect states—or nations, cities, or neighborhoods. However, flourishing societies are built on values like those listed above. And if the Great Southern Migration is any indication, then much like Ray Kinsella’s mystical baseball diamond in Field of Dreams, if you build it, they will come.