Reality stages a comeback

According to a report published by Gallup earlier this summer, public support for a range of LGBTQ-related issues is declining. Although the findings have received little media attention, they suggest that many Americans are reconsidering the implications of redefining marriage, gender, and family. As a result, growing numbers appear to be questioning some of the core assumptions behind the moral revolution of the past decade.

Notably, Gallup found declining support for pro-LGBTQ positions across every issue it examined. Although most Americans still support same-sex marriage (65%), overall support is down six percentage points from the high-water mark established in 2023. Likewise, the percentage of Americans who view gay and lesbian relations as morally acceptable (62%) is the lowest since 2016. When asked whether changing one’s gender is “morally acceptable,” only 38% answered in the affirmative. This represents an eight-point drop since 2021.

According to Gallup, the shift away from pro-LGBTQ positions has been largely driven by Republicans. In 2021, 55% of Republicans favored legal same-sex marriage; only 37% support it today. Relatedly, since 2022, the share of Republicans who believe gay or lesbian relations are “morally acceptable” has fallen 21 points to 35%. Gallup notes, “Republicans’ view of the morality of same-sex relations are now similar to what they were between 2005 and 2014.”

Looking at the data, it appears that support for pro-LGBTQ policies peaked five years ago. Since then, support has steadily declined. Various factors have caused many Americans to reconsider their position on LGBTQ issues, but three developments have undeniably contributed to the changing cultural and political landscape.

First, the overreach of transgender activists has imperiled the broader LGBTQ movement. Following the Supreme Court’s Obergefell decision in 2015, it seemed that transgender ideology, like same-sex marriage, would quickly achieve broad cultural support. For instance, the outrage directed at North Carolina legislators in 2016 for passing a law requiring individuals to use public restrooms corresponding with the sex on their birth certificates suggested an inevitability about the transgender movement’s success. However, the emergence of two issues in the early 2020s prompted many people to reevaluate their support for transgender ideology: women’s sports and gender intervention procedures for minors.

In 2021, stories emerged of gender-confused boys defeating and, in some cases, injuring girls in female athletic competitions. Female athletes such as Riley Gaines spoke out, drawing attention to the unfairness of allowing males to compete in women’s and girls’ sports. Additionally, the publication of the Cass Review in 2024 and the stories of courageous detransitioners like Chloe Cole publicized the barbaric nature of gender intervention procedures. In response to these concerns, many states passed legislation to protect girls’ sports and prohibit gender interventions for minors.

Second, following his reelection in 2024, President Donald Trump made opposing transgender ideology a matter of national policy. Within weeks of taking office, Trump signed a series of executive orders, including measures that: (1) prohibited males from competing on women’s sports teams, (2) barred individuals with gender dysphoria from serving in the military, and (3) cut off government funding for hospitals that promote or facilitate physiological interventions for gender dysphoric children. Law is inherently pedagogical, and these federal policies have contributed to the ongoing public conversation.

Third, the moral revolution has produced victims whose stories are only now being told. As Katy Faust has argued, “Everywhere gay marriage becomes law, children’s rights suffer.” Studies demonstrate that children raised by their biological parents fare better across a number of indices, including education, mental health, and later-life stability, than children otherwise raised. According to one study, children in same-sex-headed families were likely to suffer emotional or behavioral difficulties at a rate of 9.3% (compared to 4.4% in dual-sex-headed families). Additionally, children in same-sex-headed families experienced “definite” or “severe” emotional problems at a rate of 14.9% (compared to 5.5%) and were diagnosed with ADHD at a rate of 14.1% (compared to 8%).

Additionally, the legalization of same-sex marriage has contributed to the rise in the use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and surrogacy. These methods have the effect of treating children as products and exploiting women as a means to an end. For many children, maternal separation, a feature of surrogacy, is a major physiological stressor for an infant and can even permanently alter the structure of the infant’s brain. The emergence of children’s rights organizations, such as Them Before Us, has drawn attention to these issues and appear to be making a positive difference.

As the presuppositions and implications of the sexual revolution receive long overdue scrutiny, it appears the moral weight and meaning of Obergefell and gender ideology are settling in. The current moment of widespread reevaluation provides Christians with opportunities to testify to the created order and God’s plan for family, marriage, and sexuality. Although the challenge posed by the moral revolution remains great, the momentum in favor of respect for reality, as is evident in this report, is encouraging.