Israel on the edge

Every time of late that Americans start to pay less attention to the Middle East, the region thrusts itself back into our headlines. Such is the case again with Hezbollah’s attack on Israel this past weekend. The Iranian-sponsored terrorist organization based in southern Lebanon launched a rocket strike on the Golan Heights village of Majdal Shams, killing at least 12 children and teenagers. Many if not all of the dead were Arab Druze, a minority offshoot of Islam concentrated in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel (and a reminder that Israel is both a Jewish state and a pluralistic democracy, whose ethnic and religious minorities enjoy more rights than they would in many other countries of the region). Israel immediately retaliated with multiple bombing attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including bases, ammunition depots, and rocket batteries.

Hezbollah’s murder of young civilians is horrific enough. Potentially much worse is the possibility of an all-out war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah. This is the prospect that has many national security professionals in the United States and Israel very worried. Such a war would entail catastrophic destruction in both Israel and Lebanon—and would also risk escalating into a regional war involving Iran, Hezbollah’s main patron and Israel’s main foe.

However, most Israeli leaders know that they cannot let Hezbollah continue to menace Israel. Iran has armed Hezbollah with more than 200,000 advanced rockets and thousands more drones and guided missiles. This arsenal could overwhelm Israel’s vaunted rocket and missile defense systems, destroy much of its infrastructure, and kill tens of thousands of Israelis. As a small harbinger of these threats, for the last several months, Hezbollah has almost every day launched small rocket barrages into Israeli territory, forcing more than 100,000 Israelis to flee their homes.

When I have spoken with Israeli officials and security experts and asked them about the likelihood of a war with Hezbollah, the answer they almost all gave is not yes or no but rather “not yet.” What they mean is that since the vicious Hamas surprise attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s risk tolerance has changed. The Jewish state now realizes that it cannot abide letting a terrorist group sworn to Israel’s destruction exist on its border with a fearsome arsenal targeting every major population center. They are resolved to deal with Hezbollah.

Yet there remains the Gaza war to wage. The main reason for the “not yet” to fighting Hezbollah now is the desire to avoid two wars at once. Israel’s ongoing campaign to defeat Hamas and free the hostages still held in Gaza is the most urgent priority. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s diabolical leader, realizes this and has been exploiting it.

An Israeli Defense Forces colonel serving in the Golan Heights recently described Israel’s challenge as the following “trilemma”: Hezbollah will not stop launching rockets into Israel until the IDF stops fighting Hamas in Gaza, the IDF will not stop fighting in Gaza until it liberates all of the hostages held by Hamas, and Hamas will not release the hostages as long as Hezbollah keeps supporting it by striking Israel.

This is why most Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have avoided war with Hezbollah until now. Netanyahu is cautious by nature. He seems to have calibrated Israel’s retaliatory strikes thus far to deter Hezbollah while avoiding further escalation. He and his Cabinet seek first to free the hostages and finish the war in Gaza. Israel also needs a respite from fighting. The IDF wants time to rest its troops exhausted from months of hard fighting in Gaza, incorporate lessons learned from urban warfare into its doctrine and plans, and replenish its depleted kit and munitions.

Iran, however, may have other plans. Wars rarely come at a convenient time for the defender. In encouraging Hezbollah’s attacks, Iran may be showing its willingness to risk war for the chance to hurt Israel. Tehran also sees that Israel’s strongest friend, the United States, is distracted by a tumultuous political season and a weakened president.

From its national birth in 1948, Israel has always existed in a hostile neighborhood. Being surrounded by threats is not new for Jerusalem. What is new is the number and complexity of those threats. As Middle East expert Jonathan Schanzer observes, Israel currently faces war on seven fronts. Besides Iran itself, “Iranian proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen” form what he calls a “ring of fire” surrounding Israel.

That ring of fire confronts Israel with many hard choices. Hopefully, Israel can make those choices confident in America’s steadfast support.