Happy anniversary, Mister Speaker

One year ago today, Mike Johnson, a little-known Republican congressman from the bayous of Louisiana, was elected speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, taking up a gavel that was wielded in years past by both giants of history and those quickly forgotten. At that point, the former constitutional lawyer had served one term in the Louisiana state legislature and just six years in the U.S. House, a marked departure from a seemingly bygone era when seniority dominated. His only prior leadership experience had been as vice chairman of the House Republican Conference—technically on the team but on a very low rung. Yet he leapfrogged over several more well-known and longer-serving leaders to take the speakership on the fourth ballot, which followed a coup that took down former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, who served just 269 days in that role. Those post-coup days featured high drama and ugly knife-fighting among Republicans.

Johnson took over an unenviable job. On the one hand, the perks of the speakership are tremendous. The speaker of the House is second in line to the presidency behind the vice president and is one of the few offices specifically mentioned in the Constitution. There’s also the security detail and motorcade, several dozen people on staff, and a balcony with D.C.’s best view of the monuments and memorials and the National Mall. But those highlights come at a real cost for any speaker, like a constant burden of fundraising (in the last quarter, Johnson hauled in more than $27.5 million for Republicans) and campaigning (he will hit 24 states in just the month of October to stump for his current and potential colleagues).

These burdens rest on any speaker, but Johnson came in facing three particular challenges. First was the razor-thin size of his party’s majority. The House currently has 220 Republicans to 212 Democrats, which means that if just four Republicans peel off and Democrats remain unified on a vote (as they always do on key issues), chaos ensues. That represents the narrowest majority in 20 years, and before that, you’d have to go back to 1943 to see a similarly small gap between the parties.

Second was the fractious nature of his caucus. It includes “Main Street” moderates like Don Bacon, who represents a district in Nebraska that President Joe Biden won in 2020 by six points. It also includes “Freedom Caucus” conservatives like Lauren Boebert from Colorado, Matt Gaetz from Florida, and Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia. They’re a very diverse and opinionated bunch, and Johnson has to rule the collective conference while maintaining the confidence of these individuals because any one of them could threaten his speakership with a motion to vacate the chair (indeed, in May, the House Democratic Caucus sided with most Republicans to stop such a motion made by Greene).

Third was the tough reality that Johnson’s party controls only one of the three levers of power in Washington, while Democrats control the White House and the Senate. As Speaker Newt Gingrich learned the hard way in the mid-1990s, when a GOP-majority Congress went up against a Democrat in the White House, the bully pulpit of the speakership is not as big as that of the president.

And yet for all that, Speaker Johnson has survived, if not thrived, in the last year. House Republicans are united and optimistic headed into the election in a few weeks. Republicans are almost sure to lose at least two House seats, so the battle for the majority will come down to 27 seats (15 are currently red and 12 blue) in races that are too close to call. If former President Donald Trump wins a second term, Republicans likely will retain the House majority and potentially even expand it. That bodes well for Speaker Johnson. On the other hand, if Republicans lose the majority, many expect Johnson to have a tough time holding on as minority leader.

Under either scenario, Johnson will deserve a great deal of credit as the man who saw the House, and the House Republican Caucus in particular, through a challenging period. He’s done so with grace, goodwill, and great humility. He’s also done so with conviction—whenever I hear him talk about “the seven core principles of conservatism,” I want to stand up and cheer. Congratulations on your first year, Mister Speaker—here’s to many more.