Five takeaways from the Trump victory

The first and most important takeaway from the presidential election of 2024 is that inflation is the killer of incumbent politicians. There will be plenty of defenders of the Biden-Harris administration who will point to other factors to blame for the inflation that has left Americans poorer. Certainly, it is correct that inflation was not the only issue at stake, but the White House had to bear the burden of blame for the increase in prices. Why? First, the administration bought into the rhetoric of “transitory inflation” instead of the reality of a significant price increase that appears to be baked in regardless of the rate eventually settling down. Second, although the Federal Reserve had to wrestle with inflation by jacking up interest rates, the Biden-Harris administration did essentially nothing to help stop it. When a bucket of sand was needed, it poured gasoline on the fire of price increases by continuing to spend heavily. In fact, it would have spent more on student loan forgiveness had not the courts blocked its unconstitutional efforts.

The second takeaway is that President-elect Donald Trump is the most expectations-defying American politician of our age. Many, including me, thought that he was not only finished after the 2020 election but that he had consigned himself and his name to a kind of permanent infamy. Clearly, nothing could have been more incorrect. The previous greatest comeback was Richard Nixon returning from a presidential race defeat in 1960 and a California gubernatorial loss in 1962 (with a scowling, bitter exit) to win the presidency in 1968. Trump’s win in 2024 is even more impressive. Remember, this is a politician who has been twice impeached and then subject to an intense legal campaign covering both criminal and civil cases. Somehow, he survived it all not to merely eke out a victory but to massively prevail.

Third, Trump deserves credit for strategy. No Republican has won the popular vote since 2004. And it appears that Trump will win it handily. The American left has been so certain that a Republican could not win the popular vote that several states committed themselves to the idea of promising their electoral votes to the overall popular vote winner regardless of what happened in their own contests. With Trump taking the popular vote, that balloon will deflate rather rapidly. People thought it was crazy for Trump to hold big rallies in places like Madison Square Garden when he had zero chance of winning the state of New York. But he realized that the popular vote is a prize worth having and that it will bolster his legitimacy even if it is not the deciding factor. Assuming his lead holds up, Trump will be a much stronger president because of the choice he made to go beyond the map of electoral votes.

Fourth, one of the biggest hits with a Trump win is to the administrative and bureaucratic state. Trump was one of the few presidents to really restrain the regulatory state effectively. He will almost certainly take that cause back up, which will make life far easier for those who are crushed with burdens imposed by regulators who don’t have to worry about real-world consequences. But the bigger question is whether Trump will be able to do something that no one has really been able to do, which is to tame the enormous cost and obstinate strength of the federal workforce, which is known for low productivity, high salaries, and resistance to any political agenda with which its largely left and center-left employees don’t agree. Trump comes into office in the company of people determined to bring the administrative power under control. If he does, it could affect American governance for the long term.

Finally, the election appears to demonstrate that running on abortion is not the way to win a presidential race. There is little question that Democrats have had a lot of success in the states on abortion initiatives and referenda, but those victories did not sweep Vice President Kamala Harris into office even though it was by far the issue with which she was most comfortable. She has often been accused of rendering a kind of “word salad” in her answers, but in talking about abortion, she was exceedingly fluent. It didn’t matter. Abortion was not enough to win. Why? The reason is that Trump was better positioned to pose the same question that Ronald Reagan asked voters back in 1980: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Most Americans, despite being assured by Democrats that inflation wasn’t that bad, that the economy was great, and that crime was not a problem, thought about the question and arrived at an answer in Trump’s favor.