Christian colleges face the demographic cliff

In higher education, the demographic cliff of 2026 has been in the front windshield for a long time. What is the cliff? It’s the 18-year mark after the financial crisis of 2008 when it appeared the entire U.S. economy could be headed for a new Great Depression thanks to the cancerous impact of the subprime mortgage lending collapse. While the worst effects of the disaster were averted, it left a mark on the minds of many Americans. When people feel less secure and less optimistic about the future, they tend to have fewer children. That happened. Fertility declined in the wake of the crisis and hasn’t recovered since as the United States has moved below population replacement. 2026 is the year when it is believed higher education will begin to feel the inevitable effects of a smaller cohort of young people.

Enrollment in colleges has been down over the past decade. Those who follow the news in higher education know that small and private colleges seem to be closing with frequency. The latest to close was Eastern Nazarene University in Quincy, Mass. Just before that news hit, Cornerstone University in Grand Rapids, Mich., announced it was shutting down majors in the humanities. Institutions on more solid footing have nevertheless engaged in retirement buyouts and other reductions of the workforce.

The cliff is just a part of a general shift in American higher education. During the past quarter century, we have gone from a general view that college is worthwhile on its own merits to increasing skepticism about its value, which has led to increased focus on majors tied to professions. At the same time, many deride colleges as factories of “woke” indoctrination that will send students home to their families with unrecognizable views. Amid the population storm and cultural pressure, what will happen to Christian colleges?

Intuitively, Christian institutions (especially the more conservative ones) should be less susceptible to a diminished number of young people because conservative Christian families are likely more fruitful than the population at large. Nevertheless, virtually everyone in the Christian sector is eyeing the cliff and is aware that larger universities may work hard to ensure they suffer no declines, which could have effects on smaller institutions. It is also the case that community colleges are operating with free or nearly free tuition in many states, which exerts a magnetic pull away from four-year institutions for the first two years.

What needs to happen among Christian colleges? Should they continue their work in a more competitive environment that is increasingly aimed at economic outcomes? And how should families and Christian philanthropists approach them?

The first answer is a simple one. Christian families and philanthropists should demand that Christian colleges have a clear reason for their existence. In other words, they must be recognizably Christian and more in tune with Christian orthodoxy than the shifting contours of American culture. But that challenge cuts two ways. On the one hand, Christian colleges must be Christian, but on the other, being seriously Christian carries a higher cultural cost. It will be more challenging to hire faithful faculty. And it may be harder to find students who share Christian core convictions, especially about human sexuality.

Second, financial cost is a major consideration. Christian colleges, like almost all private schools, are more expensive than most public institutions. It is important to note the gap is not as large as most believe due to the widely available scholarships Christian institutions offer. However, it is still the case that tuition rose much more rapidly than the rate of inflation during the past 30 years. There is little question that high cost makes higher education less attractive across the board.

What can be done? Churches and philanthropists need to get more involved. Giving from denominational sponsors has been largely static for decades. What might once have been 10 percent of a school’s budget is now more like 1 to 3 percent. Christian donors are often concerned that large gifts will enable mission drift. One answer to that concern would be to give significant annual gifts that will stop immediately when an institution diverges too far from classical Christianity. If we want students from all walks of life to be able to have a Christian education in a high-cost environment, we will need to find ways to subsidize the cost through giving.

Christian higher education is about to be put to the test in significant ways. Do we believe that the dynamic of the young person being taught and entering into a relationship with a Christian professor has special value? And what about the time those students spend together with iron sharpening iron? Do we believe it changes lives and advances the work of the kingdom? If we do, then the answer is clear.