America caught unprepared

Niger’s democratically elected president was ousted by a military coup in late July, led by Islamist soldiers. Western nations, especially France and United States, are rightly concerned, even as they were caught unprepared.

What led to this coup? Why should the West be concerned?

Niger is a small and underprivileged country in West Africa. It has a little over 25 million people, and over 40 percent of its population lives in severe poverty on less than $2.15 a day. Geographically, part of Niger is in a region known as Sahel, which includes 16 countries, right to the south of the six countries of North Africa.

The Sahel region experienced seven military coups in the past four years. The region deserves its infamous reputation as Africa’s “coup belt.” In fact, this coup in Niger is not the first. There was an attempted coup in 2021.

But the problem is deeper, as many of these coups have been led by Islamist militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State. This region is now labeled the “epicenter of terrorism” worldwide, with more terrorism-related deaths than any other region in the world in 2022.

In response to the Niger’s coup, leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed sanctions and threatened military interference against Niger’s coup leaders, but no attacks came to fruition, as some still demand solutions through political negotiations and diplomacy. However, if recent history reveals anything, the influence of ECOWAS is weak and the coup will persist as it did in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso just in the past few years. This is evident in how the three countries in West Africa have openly supported the coup and discouraged ECOWAS from interfering.

Western nations have condemned the coup, as it will clearly have huge consequences economically and politically.

Economically, Niger is the world’s seventh-biggest uranium producer—a significant source for nuclear power. In this regard, France is in a particular bind, as it relies heavily on Niger’s production to meet at least 70 percent of its needs for electric power from nuclear generators. France had a great relationship with Niger’s ousted president. Now, a successful coup that France opposed creates great uncertainty for the future.

Politically, the ousted president was a strong ally of Western nations. In the last decade alone, the United States maintained a strong military presence in Niger and spent hundreds of millions to help the nation, while France relied on Niger to be the main base for the bulk of its forces in West Africa. Niger’s fall into the hands of military leaders complicates and jeopardizes political calculations in the region. Similarly, the European Union—especially Germany and Italy—has troops in the country.

But then Islam comes to the political mix.

Many Western nations poured resources into the country to enhance stability and security in the face of a growing influence of Islamist jihadi groups. These groups are associated with al-Qaeda and ISIS. By definition, they are “Islamists,” because they see Islam as political power and religious commitment, and “jihadist,” since “jihad” is their core concept for life and practice against anything they deem un-Islamic. Many of these radical Muslim groups have now found a haven in the West African nations after being pushed southward from North Africa. Weak governments and a collapsing economy allow these terrorist groups to recruit underprivileged youth and expand.

Then, Russia also comes to the political mix.

Niger’s neighboring countries, Mali and Burkina Faso, have allied themselves with Russia and distanced themselves from Western partners, most notably France. After the notorious attempt to revolt against Putin in June, Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, which has a strong presence in Niger’s neighbor, Mali, has reportedly taken advantage of Niger’s instability and declared its pursuit for “a new journey to Africa.”

Where has the United States been until now?

Unfortunately, the United States did not see this coup coming. And until now, the United States seems to have lacked a clear strategy for engagement in a crucial region of the world. The rise of Islamist groups and the growing influence of Russia in the region should have alarmed the Biden administration a long time ago.

The military coup in Niger is a clear blow to Western efforts to support democracy in West African nations. It also reflects the fact that several African nations are on the lookout for new economic partners and political allies.

When nations like ours appear to lack diligent foreign policies, other powerful actors are present and ready to take over. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the United States and the West.