A shift back to neutral world?

Donald Trump’s second election has given journalists a new favorite catchphrase: the vibe shift. “Vibe shift” is a piece of online slang that means a change in the cultural mood. Based upon Meta’s new support for free speech, polling numbers in support of previously controversial immigration policies, and the growing repudiation of DEI initiatives among American corporations, several commentators are feeling the same “vibes.” The philosophy of extreme progressivism variously known as “the successor ideology” or “wokeism,” something which appeared nearly inevitable in 2020, now seems stale, naïve, and even nefarious. There’s new space for different kinds of conservative ideas in the public arena. And people are taking notice.

Ezra Klein writes in The New York Times, “The election was close, but the vibes have been a rout.” Jonah Goldberg agrees: “There’s been a significant ‘vibe shift’ in American politics.” Over in the United Kingdom, The Telegraph states, “Trump’s ‘vibe shift’ is real.” Many are not only breathing a sigh of relief. They are feeling hopeful. This optimism even extends to religion.

While President Trump’s clash with the Episcopal bishop at the National Cathedral captured headlines, something that did not get as much attention was the fact that Joe Rogan, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos all attended the service at St. John’s Church prior to the inauguration. More than this, last year saw a leveling off of the “nones” (people identifying as having no religion). Data analyst Ryan Burge recently pointed out that there’s been a noticeable shift away from support for gay marriage.

Now don’t get me wrong. I don’t think any of this means that the various cultural elites have undergone true spiritual conversion. I don’t even think it means that we should expect to see widespread church growth. But it does suggest another interesting possibility. Christianity may no longer be a handicap to successful public life in America. The so-called negative world may have already peaked. Things are looking a lot more neutral.

The names negative world and neutral world go back to an essay by Aaron Renn that he eventually turned into a book, Life in the Negative World: Confronting Challenges in an Anti-Christian Culture. Renn argues that there are three measurable periods of time, or “worlds,” in recent American history where being a Christian moved from being beneficial for a person’s social status to bringing neither positive benefit nor negative stigma, and then finally to becoming  a handicap.

The general framework seemed sensible enough even if one took issue with where the historical dividing lines were drawn. Many of us have felt like we have lived through the transformation from neutral world to negative world. Sometime during the Obama years, we experienced major “vibe shifts” away from traditional Christianity, and these became extremely pronounced from 2020-2022. Conservative Christians began discussing life as exiles or strategies for redoubt and resistance. Parallel economies and aligned communities were proposed. Apocalyptic moods were not uncommon. Some sort of cataclysm seemed unavoidable.

And then the vibes changed.

This vibe shift doesn’t mean any kind of full-blown rollback of the cultural and political developments of the Obama years. Just as there was little appetite to actually repeal and replace Obamacare, it is highly unlikely that any politicians want to expend political capital opposing gay marriage. And even with the judicial success in overturning Roe v. Wade, it was efforts supporting legal abortion that won out in state after state in the last election. President Trump’s promised “Golden Age” will not be the New Jerusalem on earth.

But with that said, Christianity has not been pushed out of American public life at all, and it feels more viable today than it has in a decade. Voicing opposition to gay marriage or abortion, while still highly unpopular in many parts of the country, will not bring the equivalent social penalties as would supporting apartheid. Jack Phillips has emerged victorious in his many wedding cake lawsuits, with public opinion largely in his corner. Sports stars continue to pray before their games, and several have recently made explicitly Christian statements of praise and thanksgiving on the air. Even the formerly radioactive Mel Gibson is enjoying a comeback. A world where being a traditional Christian necessarily brings negative societal sanction seems less likely today than it previously did.

What does this mean for faithful Christian living? It certainly does not mean that the world is now our friend. We must still be on our guard for both spiritual attack and temptations that can lead us astray. It also does not mean that our churches will necessarily become more orthodox or experience less resistance to evangelism or discipleship. But it does mean that we have been given a renewed moment of opportunity.

This new neutral world won’t be like the old. Instead of moving towards secularization and the promise of a fully equalized and open society, we are moving away from the failures of those who attempted to engineer that vision. Distrust of institutions of every kind is still extremely high. There is less faith in feel-good sloganeering. Everyone is aware of the reality of cultural combat. Indeed, they have accepted it.

And so, among other things, this means that traditional Christians have the freedom to speak openly and honestly about what we believe. We can do this in public. Right here in America, without apology and without embarrassment. We do not have to assume and accept the label of being toxic. We are not cultural pariahs. Indeed, we do not have to exit the world—not even the ordinary arenas of civil society. It’s still possible for Christians to be good and ordinary Americans. We are called to seek the welfare of the city in which we live (Jeremiah 29:7). While being sure that our saltiness does not lose its true flavor (Matthew 5:13), we can still be ourselves right here.