A harbinger for 2022?

It was not just a stunning victory in Virginia. Republicans surprised everyone in New Jersey with a close race and in Pennsylvania with big wins in the judiciary. Republicans even made gains in progressive enclaves like Seattle, Wash. For twelve years, Republicans have lost state race after race in Virginia. Tuesday night, they swept. Before nine o’clock, many online outlets and political prognosticators called the Virginia sweep: Governor; Lieutenant Governor; Attorney General. By eleven o’clock, it was obvious they would take back the Virginia House of Delegates. A year ago, virtually no one thought this was possible.

MSNBC anchors started talking about random mayoral races, which was a big tip-off something was afoot. The MSNBC data genius, Steve Kornacki, started offering wild hypothetical conjecture that if Terry McAuliffe could boost his turnout in one county and then in another, he could catch Glenn Youngkin. McAuliffe surrogates started canceling on MSNBC as Larry Sabato, a man who just two days ago declared white victimization the main issue in Virginia, started sounding like someone had kicked his puppy.

The Virginia election that follows a presidential election year tends to be a harbinger for the midterms. If so, it is doom for Democrats next year. Voters in Virginia focused on the economy, jobs, and education. Democratic television commentators refused to concede the point and insisted the antics in Washington were to blame. Progressives blamed moderate Democrats for not passing reconciliation. Moderate Democrats, including Sen. Warner of Virginia, once Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia, blamed progressives for holding up the bipartisan infrastructure legislation. MSNBC anchors blamed white privilege and racism.

There are lessons for those who want to hear them.

First, Democrats need to take the advice I used to give candidates when I was a political consultant: know when you are in the minority even when you think you are right. Democrats are convinced education and crime are not big issues. They are convinced Republicans screaming about these issues is a distraction from Donald Trump. But it turned out the Democrats were in the minority, and voters really did think these issues mattered.

Second, crime matters. In Minneapolis, voters rejected defunding the police. In Buffalo, N.Y., voters rejected a socialist Democrat candidate for the incumbent Democrat mayor who ran as a write-in candidate. Instead, voters were clearly concerned about crime. In Atlanta, the pro-police candidates garnered the most votes with two of them headed into a runoff. In Seattle, the GOP advanced a city attorney who, at this writing, was leading because of her tough-on-crime stance.

Third, education matters. In Virginia, Terry McAuliffe was trounced across the state on the issue. Even in Loudoun County, where voters gave McAuliffe a win, it was a far narrower win than Democrats had counted on. The voters in that county and across Virginia, not to mention New Jersey voters, voted with wrath against Democrats who shut down schools and brought in critical race theory. Parents, who had never had the opportunity to observe their kids in school, got to witness the Zoom calls last year. They were not happy. As much as Democrats deny it, this issue is one the GOP should seize on as a civil-rights issue.

Fourth, former President Trump was not the driving issue in the race, even as Terry McAuliffe desperately tried to make him so. Suburban voters turned back to the GOP. Though Democrats did their best to tie every Republican to Trump, voters did not bite. Instead, they rejected Joe Biden and the Democrats. Democrats are not going to be able to win in 2022 if they focus on Trump. Voters are smart enough to know Trump is not on the ballot, but the Democrats’ policies are. Voters frankly hate the Biden agenda (or at least hate the parts they know about), and Democrats are not selling the rest.

Fifth, Republicans need to move past the stolen-election mythology. It boggles the mind to think Democrats were smart enough to determine which states they would need to steal the Electoral College but could not steal a simple popular vote for dog catcher in Virginia. The reality is Democrats controlled Virginia and could not steal it. They controlled much of Pennsylvania and could not stop the GOP sweeping judicial races. They just are not masters of stolen elections, as some Republicans claim.

Lastly, it turns out voters are not Biden devotees. He has no mandate. Republicans can win. They will just have a challenge winning with Trump, even as they win with many of his policies. Unfortunately for the GOP, 2021 was a response to the Democrats’ agenda and not an endorsement of a nonexistent GOP agenda. They will need ideas and candidates for 2024, but for 2022, not being Biden will help them. But in the end, Republicans can win only with winning ideas and a clear agenda.