A disaster waiting to happen

Vice President Kamala Harris is the likely Democratic Party nominee for president, following President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday to drop out of the race and endorse her. With her slim résumé on foreign policy and Middle aEastern affairs and her huge commitment to identity politics, Harris’ nomination and possible presidency could be a disaster when it comes to that already chaotic and wounded region.

While Harris will likely adopt Biden’s policies on the Middle East in general, she has already shown clear signs of a harsher disposition toward Israel. With Harris likely needing to secure Michigan to win the presidency, she will probably double down her rhetoric against Israel to win votes from Muslims who had largely threatened to abandon Biden due to his approach to the Israel-Hamas war.

Unlike Biden, who developed experience and strong personal ties with many Israeli politicians for decades, Harris has emerged as an inexperienced politician lacking any significant involvement with the oft-boiling Middle East. This is significantly problematic, as she seems to be driven merely by the direction and dictation of the moment without any clear disposition to the region or America’s major ally there.

When Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 of last year, Harris followed Biden’s footsteps and vehemently condemned Hamas and openly supported Israel: “We are not going to create any conditions on the support that we are giving Israel to defend itself.” Her statement is better viewed as driven by the necessity of the moment, not as a clear approach to Middle Eastern affairs or Israel’s survival against terrorism. This is clear as Harris was one of the first major American politicians to begin pressuring Israel to back down while the nation was still in mourning and trying to deal with the aftermath of the horrifying Hamas attack, including the slaughter of more than a thousand innocents.

Less than two months after the Hamas attack, Harris met with Arab Muslim leaders in Dubai. Being driven by the moment and the religious background of those around her, her rhetoric swiftly changed: “Israel must do more to protect innocent civilians,” adding that “too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.” There was no mention whatsoever as to how Israel was trying its best to deal with the Hamas attack by launching quick attacks to gain the release of hundreds of hostages and retaliate for the death of Israelis.

It’s not that Harris should never have mentioned how Palestinian innocents have died. Rather, she appears unable to deal with complex foreign problems with various variables in a sophisticated and messy region. Harris clearly switches positions too fast too quickly, which reflects a lack of experience in forging policies—particularly those concerning the Middle East—which are colored by a blurry view of who are the allies and foes in the region.

But it gets worse. Harris’ commitment to identity politics keeps distancing her from her initial position against the Hamas attack.

This appeared clearly as many began to forget who initiated the attack and began to view Israel as the oppressor and Hamas as the oppressed in the balance of power in the war. The demands were high for the Jewish state, while hardly any pressure was placed on Hamas to release the hostages. When young Americans took to the streets and college campuses to support what they viewed as the Palestinian cause, Harris praised their protests, relaying that she valued “the emotion behind it.” For her, these protestors show “exactly what the human emotion should be.” With such statements, Harris shows clearly how she’s tossed to and fro by with the waves of the day, rather than having a robust and rigorous understanding of foreign policies and clear calculations of the variables in the region.

And now that she will need Muslim votes in states like Michigan, we may predict where her position will land.

Harris, as vice president, has not visited Israel at all. Her travels to the Middle East only brought her to a glamorous Gulf region, particularly the United Arab Emirates twice, not to a disordered, messy, and chaotic land. Her lukewarm outlook toward Israel was made clear in how she decided not to preside, as president of the Senate, over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress on Wednesday and her remarks to him on Thursday. Her lack of clear views on U.S. Middle Eastern policy, especially clearly identifying our major ally in the region and openly supporting it, should be a warning sign for all.

If Harris wins the nomination, it’ll be a rough day for many reasons, but if she gains the presidency, it could be a truly dangerous day for the Middle East and Israel.