A dictator falls

Sunday was a historic day in Syria as the regime of strongman Bashar al-Assad collapsed. Assad fled the country after armed rebels, composed mostly of Sunni Islamic militia, successfully controlled the capital city of Damascus. To the shock of many, these Sunni warriors advanced strategically and successfully, controlling Syria in its entirety in only 12 days. Assad escaped to Russia, where he has been granted asylum.

Syrians took to the streets in celebration after the fall of the dictator, although many others—especially Christians and other minorities—are quite unsure about the developments. World leaders spoke words of relief after the dictator’s fall. But what comes next?

For years, the United States openly opposed Assad’s regime, not only due to its brutality against its citizens but also because of its strong alliance with Iran and Russia. Should the United States and its allies support the Sunni rebels who ousted Assad?

No, not even close. Why not? And what’s happening on the ground in Syria?

On the one hand, the regime—not the people of Syria—has been significantly important to Iran, the strongest Shiite power in the region. Even though Sunni Muslims are the majority population in Syria, the Shiite ruling elite has been in power for more than half a century, largely because of Iran’s support. The Assad regime was crucial for Iran’s axis of influence in the region, which includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Through access to Syria, Iran seeks to maintain geopolitical hopes to eradicate Israel and cripple Western—especially American—influence in the region.

On the other hand, the rebels are Sunni Muslims with a strong Islamist agenda that adopts Islam as both a religion and government, worship and political leadership. These rebels consist of many extremist groups, but the strongest is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—an Arabic name meaning “Freeing-Syria Group.” HTS emerged from al-Qaeda and ISIS and is designated as a terrorist group by the United States. Its main leader is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who is identified as a terrorist by the United States (which once put a $10 million bounty on his head). Jolani joined al-Qaeda in 2003 and fought against U.S. troops in Iraq. Consequently, he was imprisoned by the United States. When released in 2011, he led the al-Nusra Front (also terrorist), which rebranded itself in 2017 as HTS, denying any ties with al-Qaeda.

Jolani also rebranded himself, aware that his earlier extremist activities and old image wouldn’t receive international support. In an exclusive interview with CNN, Jolani claimed he has no desire to advance global jihad, but rather his emphasis is to overthrow the Assad regime and create a Syrian government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.” Additionally, Jolani now avoids using his nom de guerre, as it was assumed during his tenure with al-Qaeda and ISIS, and returned to using his real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a to cultivate a newly “moderate” less militaristic image.

Undoubtedly, it would be a huge mistake for anyone to believe Jolani or his fanciful words to the Western media. Jolani of HTS is likely no different from the Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of ISIS, Osama bin Laden of al-Qaeda, or even Yahya Sinwar of Hamas. We will soon find out.

The sad reality is that all solutions are now bad in Syria, as switching an evil regime with an even more evil group can never be good. The rise of Jolani and the fall of Assad may eventually bring back ISIS—perhaps under a different brand—to a severely wounded region.

It is also true that Turkey, under Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is playing a role in the mix, as it controls rebels operating near the border with Syria. Erdoğan is a devout rival to Assad and wants to ensure the destruction of any Syrian Kurdish groups near the border. This is one reason why Erdoğan may—even silently—have supported all attempts to topple Assad’s regime.

Knowing the brutality of the Assad dynasty, the rapid fall of his Syrian troops may be shocking to many. However, it could be plausibly interpreted if we consider how Syria’s allies have been crippled in many ways recently: Hezbollah was drastically weakened by Israel, Russia has been focused on Ukraine, and now Iran has been preoccupied with Gaza and Lebanon.

What should we expect?

Speaking with many Syrian Christians, it is clear they are relieved by the collapse of the Assad regime, but they are equally concerned with the rise of radical Muslims to power. For these Christians, if the choice was between Assad and democracy, they would definitely choose democracy. But if the choice was between Assad and ISIS or the like, there is no question they’d choose Assad.

The reality is that the Assad regime had always used minorities and their fear of radical Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, and the like to control the country even more.

The landscape of the Middle East can change quickly. Just ask Bashar al-Assad, now residing in Moscow.