A convincing twelve days

About two weeks ago, Iran executed two dozen teenagers who had converted to Christianity. That night, fire rained down from Heaven in the form of an Israeli attack. In the first 24 hours, Israel decapitated Iran’s military leadership so thoroughly, Iran struggled to respond. Twelve days after the war began, Donald Trump declared there would be peace. Peace through strength works if a president is willing to use strength to get peace.

Several aspects of the war in Iran must be considered. First, like the pager explosions in Lebanon, Israeli intelligence and military coordination in Iran has been masterful. Israel built a drone factory inside Iran. Playing off the Iranian secret police and military’s suspicions of each other, Israel constructed weapons in Iran right under Iranian authorities’ noses.

Once the drones were ready to go, Israel used Iran’s own telecommunications infrastructure and summoned the top military leadership to one location. The generals and others arrived thinking a meeting had been called. Israel then blew up the building, killing them all. The next round of military leaders elevated through battlefield promotions were all led to a hidden bunker in the mountains. Israel then blew that up.

For ten days, Israel decimated Iran’s capacity to make war. They eliminated the military leadership, military communications infrastructure, missile locations, launch locations, and more. The one thing Israel could not do was take out the Fordo nuclear complex buried three hundred feet below ground.

Second, in waging war, the Israelis deeply impressed Donald Trump with their sophisticated coordination. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal both noted how in the White House the president marveled at the Israeli operation. That provided the president the reassurance that he could engage in a limited military operation.

Third, the limited American engagement saw the first use of bunker busters at war. Initial press reports noted the bunker buster could, in theory, penetrate roughly two hundred feet of rock before exploding. The Fordo complex had been built three hundred feet underground. Military personnel assured President Trump two bunker busters would work to eliminate the complex. He had them drop twelve, plus two more at the Natanz nuclear facility, which also got hit by a barrage of tomahawk missiles.

The surprise attack, a few days after the president announced a two-week decision making period was remarkably well executed. On social media, the president sent signals that he might strike Iran. Then he met with anti-interventionist Steve Bannon. The two-week pause, decided before the Bannon visit, was released after his visit. People interpreted the two-week pause through the lens of a Bannon visit and concluded Trump might waver on action. Two days later, bombs fell. The president reputedly unable to keep a secret surprised the whole world.

Fourth, a portion of the president’s base has been confused over who created whom. Some of the loud voices of MAGA, such as Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, very much act like they are the puppet masters pulling the president’s strings. As talk of bombing Iran grew louder, they grew louder in their opposition. Isolationist voices assured the world that if the president bombed Iran, there would be a split in MAGA.

On March 15, Tucker Carlson tweeted, “It’s worth pointing out that a strike on the Iranian nuclear sites will almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths at bases throughout the Middle East, and cost the United States tens of billions of dollars.” He ended his tweet with “Don’t let the propagandists lie to you.” In the last week, Carlson warned of World War III, Russian intervention, $30 gas, and worse. The thought of bombing Iran suddenly became conversations about “forever wars” and “boots on the ground” and “Iraq 2.0.” None of the disaster scenarios happened, and the president pulled his own strings.

After bombing Iran on Saturday, Israel retargeted Iranian operations on Sunday to focus on those institutions and means of communication that keep Iran’s present regime in power. Israel pivoted from military targets to the secret police, more telecommunications infrastructure, and other facilities.

On Monday, Iran notified Qatar and Iraq it would launch a few missiles at American positions in both countries. The American positions had already been evacuated. All the missiles were intercepted in flight. Then President Trump thanked the Iranians for advanced notice of their strikes and declared the twelve-day war concluded with both Iran and Israel accepting peace.

It is very possible Americans over-learned the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Not everything in the Middle East lasts forever, including those wars. President Trump is a different leader with a different vision. He has consistently said Iran cannot get nukes, and there can be no forever wars in the Middle East. In the last few days, he has done his best to thread a needle and, right now, it looks successful. We do not know what the future holds, but for all the hysteria of the isolationists, it is worth remembering—don’t let the propagandists lie to you.